美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】 2026年中期选举初选进入尾声，两党的结果已经打破了不少看似稳固的判断。特朗普仍然牢牢影响共和党，但他亲自背书的候选人在多场关键初选中接连落败；民主党则有七名现任众议员倒在党内挑战者手下。特朗普的背书在哪些地方仍然有效？现任优势又为什么正在民主党内部失灵？ 本期我们从密歇根、威斯康星和明尼苏达的选举结果谈起，讨论民主党建制派、进步派与民主社会主义者围绕“可当选性”、巴以议题、族裔代表和党内资源展开的路线之争。我们也分析了初选民调为什么会大幅失准：投票人群的构成、最后时刻的势头、竞选资金与组织能力，怎样让看似稳固的领先在投票日突然消失。 我们也讨论了可能决定参议院控制权的大选地图：德州、密歇根、缅因、俄亥俄、阿拉斯加、佐治亚、北卡和爱荷华，哪些是真正可能翻盘的战场，哪些只有在浪潮选举中才会出现意外？2026年的中期选举不只是红蓝之间的较量，也是两党内部关于谁能代表自己、谁能真正赢下大选的争夺。 本期节目录制于8月16日。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:35 开场：进入2026年中期选举初选盘点 05:11 特朗普背书破功，共和党掌控力出现松动 12:23 七名民主党现任众议员为何输掉党内初选 19:10 密歇根与威斯康星：进步派、建制派与“可当选性” 40:24 明尼苏达与民主社会主义者的扩张 43:16 初选民调为什么接连失准 48:24 德州与密歇根：参议院争夺的两种难题 55:31 缅因州：Susan Collins 还能守住席位吗 58:37 俄亥俄州：Sherrod Brown 的翻盘机会 1:06:00 阿拉斯加：同名候选人与排序复选的变量 1:12:16 佐治亚与北卡：民主党为什么领先稳固 1:16:53 爱荷华：地方议题能否撬动红州 1:22:13 蒙大拿、内布拉斯加与堪萨斯的冷门可能 1:25:54 Fetterman 与参议院控制权的关键一票 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 The 2026 midterms have not yet entered their final stretch, but the party primaries have already upended several assumptions that once seemed settled. Donald Trump still holds considerable sway over the Republican Party, yet several candidates he personally endorsed have lost key primaries. Meanwhile, seven incumbent House Democrats were defeated by challengers from within their own party. Where does Trump’s endorsement still carry weight? And why is the advantage of incumbency breaking down among Democrats? We examine the results in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, focusing on the struggle among the Democratic establishment, progressives, and democratic socialists over electability, Israel and Palestine, racial representation, and party resources. We also explore why primary polling missed the mark so badly: how turnout composition, late momentum, campaign spending, and organizing capacity can make an apparently secure lead disappear on Election Day. We also survey the Senate map that could determine control of the chamber, including Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa. Which races present genuine opportunities to flip a seat, and which would become competitive only in a wave election? The 2026 midterms are not simply a contest between red and blue. They are also an internal struggle over who represents each party and who can actually win a general election. This episode was recorded on August 16. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 05:11 Trump-backed candidates fall short as his grip on the GOP shows signs of weakening 12:23 Why seven incumbent House Democrats lost their primaries 19:10 Michigan and Wisconsin: Progressives, the establishment, and “electability” 40:24 Minnesota and the rise of democratic socialists 43:16 Why primary polling keeps missing the mark 48:24 Texas and Michigan: Two different challenges in the battle for the Senate 55:31 Maine: Can Susan Collins hold on to her seat? 58:37 Ohio: Sherrod Brown’s path to a comeback 1:06:00 Alaska: Same-name candidates and the ranked-choice voting wildcard 1:12:16 Georgia and North Carolina: Why the Democrats’ leads look solid 1:16:53 Iowa: Can local issues put a red state in play? 1:22:13 Could Montana, Nebraska, or Kansas deliver an upset? 1:25:54 Fetterman and the decisive vote for control of the Senate 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 同样讨论总统罢免权，FTC 不是例外，美联储却是；同样声称尊重文本和原意，保守派大法官在出生公民权、投票权和跨性别权益案中，却一次次更换自己的法理工具。 本期我们与 Nancy、品达一起盘点美国最高法院 2025-2026 开庭期：特朗普的“单一行政权”走到了哪一步？谁仍然被视为美国人？《投票权法》还剩下多少效力？跨性别学生为什么被排除在女子校队之外？当法院的判决越来越只能用政治解释，偶尔对特朗普说“不”，究竟是制度制衡，还是“小骂大帮忙”？ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:39 FTC 与美联储：特朗普能解雇谁 08:02 “单一行政权”如何成为保守派共识 28:29 出生公民权与谁算“美国人” 43:31 TPS 终止：移民身份和司法审查 53:35 投票权法、黑人选区与政治划区 1:02:02 最高法院还有稳定法理吗 1:13:01 跨性别学生参加女子体育案 1:20:53 校园体育为什么不能套用精英体育逻辑 1:33:32 Alito 退休乌龙与大法官的个人政治 1:41:21 Barrett 为什么总成为右翼攻击目标 1:44:36 法院改革与对特朗普“小骂大帮忙” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Nancy：普林斯顿大学政治学博士生，耶鲁法学院法律博士 品达：美国政治观察人士，《孤岛繁星》主播 【 What We Talked About】 When considering the same question of presidential removal power, the Court decided that the FTC was not an exception, but the Federal Reserve was. And while the conservative justices continue to profess their commitment to textualism and originalism, they repeatedly switched doctrinal tools in cases involving birthright citizenship, voting rights, and transgender rights. In this episode, Nancy and Pinda join us to review the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2025-2026 term. How far has Trump’s vision of the “unitary executive” advanced? Who still counts as American? How much remains of the Voting Rights Act? Why can transgender students be excluded from girls’ school sports? As the Court’s decisions become increasingly difficult to explain through legal doctrine alone, do its occasional rulings against Trump represent genuine institutional checks, or merely “small rebukes, big assists”? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:39 The FTC and the Federal Reserve: Whom can Trump fire? 08:02 How the “unitary executive” became a conservative consensus 28:29 Birthright citizenship and who counts as “American” 43:31 Ending TPS: Immigration status and judicial review 53:35 The Voting Rights Act, majority-Black districts, and partisan redistricting 1:02:02 Does the Supreme Court still have a coherent legal doctrine? 1:13:01 The case over transgender students participating in girls’ sports 1:20:53 Why school sports cannot be judged by the logic of elite athletics 1:33:32 The false report of Alito’s retirement and the personal politics of the justices 1:41:21 Why Barrett remains a favorite target of the right 1:44:36 Court reform and the Supreme Court’s “small rebukes, big assists” approach to Trump 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Nancy：Princeton Politics PhD student, Yale Law School graduate Pinda：American political enthusiast 【The Links】 * Trump v. Slaughter：总统罢免 FTC 委员与“单一行政权” * Trump v. Cook：总统罢免美联储理事与央行独立性 * Trump v. Barbara：出生公民权 * Mullin v. Doe：海地与叙利亚 TPS 终止及司法审查 * Louisiana v. Callais：黑人多数选区与《投票权法》第二条 * West Virginia v. B. P. J.：跨性别学生参加女子体育运动 * 《纽约时报》：TPS 被终止后，美国部分行业面临劳动力短缺 * Harvard Kennedy School：Louisiana v. Callais 对《投票权法》意味着什么 * 《纽约时报》：最高法院跨性别学生体育案的当事人 Becky Pepper-Jackson * Becky Pepper-Jackson 的母亲：这个母亲节，我感谢跨性别女儿教会我的事 * ACLU：关于跨性别运动员的四个常见迷思 * NPR Public Editor：Nina Totenberg 误报 Alito 退休事件的经过 * 《纽约时报》：Amy Coney Barrett 为何再次遭到共和党右翼攻击 * 《纽约时报》：Ketanji Brown Jackson 做客 Michelle Obama 播客 * IMO with Michelle Obama and Craig Robinson：Ketanji Brown Jackson 访谈 * Slow Burn: Becoming Justice Gorsuch * Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935)：FTC 独立性与正当理由解雇 * Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (2024)：推翻 Chevron deference * Seila Law v. CFPB (2020)：单一局长制与总统罢免权 * United States v. Wong Kim Ark (1898)：“黄金德案”与出生公民权 * Thornburg v. Gingles (1986)：《投票权法》第二条的 Gingles 标准 * Shelby County v. Holder (2013)：削弱《投票权法》的关键判决 Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么 The What】 这是一场纽约Same Room华语播客节线下录制的节目！ 这期节目，老纽约客美轮美换主播Lokin、城市传说主播罗雨翔和纽约漫谈录的欧阳斌，给新纽约客起朱楼宴宾客主播大卫翁和唠点纽约嗑主播杨蒙恩，，奉上含金量极高的纽约生存Tips：从如何通过Housing Connect网站抽取租金稳定的『福利房』，到美股AI热潮下的资产配置陷阱；从地铁逃票的法律风险，到应对种族歧视的真实报案经验，到华人社区的凝聚力差异，和长岛通勤的省钱小窍门。 This is a live recording from the Same Room Chinese-Language Podcast Festival in New York!In this episode, veteran New Yorkers Lokin, host of The American Roulette 美轮美换, Luo Yuxiang, host of Urban Myths 城市传说, and Ouyang Bin of Bin on the Bank 纽约漫谈录 offer newly minted New Yorkers David Weng, host of 起朱楼宴宾客, and Yang Meng'en, host of Loud in NY 唠点纽约嗑, a treasure trove of high-value New York survival tips: from winning rent-stabilized "affordable housing" through the Housing Connect lottery, to asset-allocation traps amid the US stock market's AI frenzy; from the legal risks of subway fare evasion, to real-life experience filing police reports over racial discrimination, to differences in cohesion across Chinese immigrant communities, and money-saving tricks for the Long Island commute. 【时间轴 The When】 * 03:42 - 第一代移民命题：100个咖啡计划与身份焦虑 * 06:40 - 纽约的好处：无论你是谁，总有群体能托住你 * 08:44 - 现实的骨感：美国梦滤镜下的OPT与H1B关卡 * 13:15 - 职场奇遇：从波士顿大巴面试到进入纽约市政府 * 22:20 - 文化输出：米兰达权利与美国价值观的全球影响 * 31:26 - 34街的变革：社区如何与政府合作保留公共空间 * 36:51 - 纽约的人才红利：为何在这里更容易认识有趣的人 * 43:48 - 法律视角下的租客权利保护与eviction流程 * 47:30 - AI泡沫讨论：盯紧OpenAI这个行业“脆弱点” * 54:45 - 避雷分享：不要迷信社交媒体上的“黑白大厨”餐厅 * 72:08 - 结尾彩蛋：长岛火车的买票精算与1美元苏打水攻略 * 03:42 - The first-generation immigrant question: the "100 coffees" plan and identity anxiety * 06:40 - What's great about New York: whoever you are, there's a community to catch you * 08:44 - Harsh reality: the OPT and H1B gauntlet behind the American Dream filter * 13:15 - Career adventures: from a Boston bus interview to landing a job in NYC government * 22:20 - Cultural export: Miranda rights and the global influence of American values * 31:26 - Change on 34th Street: how communities work with government to preserve public space * 36:51 - New York's talent dividend: why it's easier to meet interesting people here * 43:48 - Tenant rights and the eviction process, from a legal perspective * 47:30 - The AI bubble debate: watch OpenAI, the industry's "weak point" * 54:45 - What to avoid: don't fall for "Culinary Class Wars" restaurants hyped on social media * 72:08 - Closing bonus: LIRR ticket-buying math and the $1 soda hack 【我们是谁 The Who】 选修课 Universus 是一档分享和探讨泛文化话题的中文播客，脱胎于2013年创办的纽约文化沙龙。 我们力求引发对学科方法和视角的认知和思考，而不仅仅是知识的传递。我们在组织活动的过程中积累了一些经验和人脉，尝试打造成年人的博雅教育，并在播客中拓展这样的探索。我们希望审视和反抗无意识的价值规训与随波逐流。我们希望冷酷地剖析自己的偏见，热忱地拥抱多元视角。我们希望去工具化，真诚地感知、理解、创造自己的生活和复杂的世界。我们追随原初的好奇而非代餐式的猎奇。话题可以轻松，方法力求严肃。在《选修课》里，我们互相映照，唤醒失落的维度。 选修课 Universus is a Chinese-language podcast created by the same people who founded the New York Chinese Cultural Salon (纽约文化沙龙）in 2013. The past decade of organizing events and talks put us in a position of creating a sort of liberal arts education experience for those who have left school. We strive to go beyond merely transmitting knowledge to reflecting on complex topics using cross-disciplinary perspectives. We strive to resist conformity, to dissect our own biases, and to embrace diverse schools of thought. Our goal is to help professionals resist becoming just a tool of production, and to understand the world around us in earnest. We let our genuine curiosity be our guide. With a light-hearted tone, we approach each topic seriously. We hope that “选修课 Universus” creates a space to explore lost dimensions. 【买咖啡 Please Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡： * 打赏平台：www.patreon.com/universuspod * 商务合作邮箱：[email protected] If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: * 打赏平台: www.patreon.com/universuspod * Business Inquiries Email: [email protected]

【聊了什么】 有人真的死了，有人消失近一个月后出来证明自己还活着，还有人虽然活着，政治生命却已经结束。本期从林赛·格雷厄姆突然去世、麦康奈尔的健康疑云和 Graham Platner 因性侵指控退选聊起，盘点华盛顿这个夏天的死人、活人和“政治死人”。 我们也讨论格雷厄姆留下的权力真空、美国国会的老人政治、民主党候选人接连出现的丑闻，以及 ICE 执法如何影响缅因州和德州选情。后半段转向重新升级的伊朗战争、霍尔木兹海峡控制权和特朗普提出的20%通行费，最后聊到他为何在中期选举前重新炒作2020年选举舞弊。 本期节目录制于7月18日。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:20 林赛·格雷厄姆突然去世 08:21 从反特朗普到核心盟友：格雷厄姆的政治遗产 13:39 妹妹接班：南卡参议院席位如何继承 20:54 麦康奈尔“还活着”与国会老人政治 29:03 Graham Platner：从民主党新星到政治死亡 33:23 候选人审查与进步派的政治素人困境 39:52 ICE 枪击事件如何进入缅因州选战 44:56 Ruben Gallego 的竞选资金与桃色丑闻 52:06 伊朗战火重燃，停火备忘录为何失效 58:49 美国会不会用武力打开霍尔木兹海峡 01:01:57 特朗普的“海峡守护者”与20%通行费 01:05:48 特朗普重提2020年选举舞弊 01:11:45 战争拨款、国会票数与中期选举 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 Someone actually died, someone resurfaced after nearly a month to prove he's still alive, and someone else is alive but politically finished. This episode starts with Lindsey Graham's sudden death, the health mystery surrounding Mitch McConnell, and Graham Platner's withdrawal from his race over sexual assault allegations — a rundown of Washington's summer of the dead, the living, and the politically dead. We also discuss the power vacuum Graham leaves behind, gerontocracy in Congress, the string of scandals hitting Democratic candidates, and how ICE enforcement is shaping the races in Maine and Texas. The second half turns to the re-escalating war with Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's proposed 20% transit fee, and finally why he's reviving 2020 election fraud claims ahead of the midterms. This episode was recorded on July 18. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:20 Lindsey Graham's sudden death 08:21 From Trump critic to core ally: Graham's political legacy 13:39 A sister succeeds: how South Carolina's Senate seat gets passed down 20:54 McConnell is "still alive" — and the gerontocracy in Congress 29:03 Graham Platner: from rising Democratic star to political death 33:23 Candidate vetting and progressives' political-outsider problem 39:52 How an ICE shooting entered Maine's Senate race 44:56 Ruben Gallego's campaign finances and sex scandal 52:06 War with Iran reignites: why the ceasefire memorandum collapsed 58:49 Would the U.S. use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? 01:01:57 Trump's "Strait Guardian" plan and the 20% transit fee 01:05:48 Trump revives 2020 election fraud claims 01:11:45 War appropriations, the votes in Congress, and the midterms 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助