美轮美换 The American Roulette
深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客

Album
主播:
小华-美轮美换、talich、王浩嵐2、Lokin猫
出版方:
Baihua Media
订阅数:
5.15万
集数:
68
最近更新:
1周前
播客简介...
一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客
美轮美换 The American Roulette的创作者...
美轮美换 The American Roulette的节目...

053 | 只大不美的“大而美法案” One Big Ugly Bill

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】 特朗普2.0执政百天过后,共和党正在国会推动一项被称为“大而美法案”(One Big Beautiful Bill)的一千多页的一揽子法案。这项法案试图将移民、税改、福利等多个领域的政策打包通过,让特朗普的议程永久化。这背后有何深层动机?为何选择在此时以这种方式推进?这项法案的具体内容是什么,又将对美国政治、经济及普通民众产生哪些深远影响? 播客文字稿(付费会员专享):https://theamericanroulette.com/big-beautiful-bill-ugly-transcript/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:01:00 “大而美法案”(One Big Beautiful Bill)的背景与共和党动机 00:06:48 预算协调程序 (Budget Reconciliation) 详解 00:14:29 为何不单独延续税改,而选择“一揽子”方案? 00:21:12 法案核心:减税措施详解 00:49:31 社会保障与福利改革:Medicaid与SNAP 01:08:16 法案中的开支增加项目 01:10:36 众议院投票的政治动态与特朗普的角色 01:15:54 法案在参议院的前景与挑战 01:22:22 法案对中期选举的潜在影响 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华:媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 Following President Trump 2.0's first 100 days in office, Republicans in Congress are pushing a more than 1,000-page megabill dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill." This legislation attempts to bundle policies across multiple domains, including tax reform, welfare, and immigration, aiming to make Trump's agenda permanent. What are the underlying motivations behind this move? Why choose this particular moment and method for advancement? What are the specific contents of this bill, and what profound impacts will it have on American politics, the economy, and ordinary people? Podcast Transcript (Paid Members Exclusive): https://theamericanroulette.com/big-beautiful-bill-ugly-transcript/ 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:01:00 The "One Big Beautiful Bill": Background & Republican Motivations 00:06:48 Budget Reconciliation Explained 00:14:29 Why a "Package Deal" Instead of Just Extending Tax Cuts? 00:21:12 Core of the Bill: Tax Cut Measures Explained 00:49:31 Social Security and Welfare Reform: Medicaid & SNAP 01:08:16 Spending Increases in the Bill 01:10:36 Political Dynamics of the House Vote and Trump's Role 01:15:54 The Bill's Prospects and Challenges in the Senate 01:22:22 Potential Impact of the Bill on Midterm Elections 【The Links】 https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-05/61422-Reconciliation-Distributional-Analysis.pdf https://theamericanroulette.com/tax-on-tips/ https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/ https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/opinion/josh-hawley-dont-cut-medicaid.html Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

90分钟
22k+
3天前

054 | 马斯克和特朗普的关系升空又落地 Trump and Musk’s public blowup

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】 2025年6月5日,美国总统特朗普与世界首富马斯克在社交媒体上展开激烈公开争吵,二人的政治联盟正式宣告(暂时)破裂。从马斯克公开抨击共和党的“大而美法案”,到特朗普暗示其患有“特朗普精神错乱综合症”,再到马斯克抛出所谓“爱泼斯坦档案”的重磅炸弹,双方的矛盾在短短一天内迅速激化,隔空骂战不断升级。 本期节目复盘这场引爆舆论的风暴。我们探讨了这场争吵究竟是源于原则之争,还是赤裸裸的利益冲突?马斯克在共和党和MAGA运动中的影响力究竟有多大,他是否高估了自己?这场风暴又将如何影响“大而美”法案的参议院前景。 本期节目录制于2025年6月5日美国东部时间晚间10点左右。 【美轮美换 × 疲惫娇娃线上读书会】 我们最近将与友台《疲惫娇娃》联合举办一场线上读书会活动,这次讨论的是今年的一本新书——《Abundance》。 读书会对美轮美换付费会员免费开放(请使用会员邮箱登录在下方页面获取折扣码),也欢迎大家打赏支持。 详情请见此链接:https://theamericanroulette.com/hui-yuan-huo-dong-mei-lun-mei-huan-x-pi-bei-jiao-wa-xian-shang-du-shu-hui-abundance/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:00:36 特朗普与马斯克公开决裂 00:07:11 决裂背后的三种理论:原则之争、利益冲突还是积怨已久? 00:14:04 决裂风波对“大而美法案”的影响:参议院政治博弈与法案前景 00:17:43 意见领袖还是负资产?马斯克的政治影响力与民主党应对策略 00:26:28 马斯克的底牌与共和党内派系斗争 00:39:34 马斯克与政治的“水土不服” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华:媒体人 曹起曈:青椒,政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 On June 5, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and the world's richest man, Elon Musk, erupted into a fierce public dispute on social media, marking the formal (and temporary) rupture of their political alliance. From Musk's public criticism of the Republican "Big Beautiful Bill" to Trump suggesting Musk suffers from "Trump Derangement Syndrome," and then to Musk dropping the bombshell of the so-called "Epstein files," the conflict between the two escalated rapidly within a single day, with their war of words intensifying online. This episode unpacks this firestorm that has captivated public attention. We explore whether this feud stems from a clash of principles or a naked conflict of interest. We assess the true extent of Musk's influence within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, and whether he overestimated his own standing. Finally, we analyze how this fallout will impact the prospects of the "Big Beautiful Bill" bill in the Senate. This episode was recorded on June 5, 2025, at approximately 10 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:00:36 Trump and Musk's Public Fallout 00:07:11 Three Theories Behind the Fallout: A Clash of Principles, a Conflict of Interest, or a Long-Building Feud? 00:14:04 The Fallout's Impact on the 'Big and Beautiful Bill': Senate Politics and the Bill's Future 00:17:43 An Opinion Leader or a Liability? Musk's Political Influence and the Democrats' Strategy 00:26:28 Musk's Leverage and Republican Infighting 00:39:34 Musk's Awkward Fit in Politics 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich:Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【The Links】 https://theamericanroulette.com/elon-musk-donald-trump/ Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

41分钟
53k+
3天前

055 | 特朗普 vs. 哈佛大学 Trump's war on Harvard

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】 特朗普政府与美国顶尖高校的对决全面升级。从大幅削减联邦拨款,到以“反犹”为名发起调查,再到撤销哈佛大学招收国际学生的SEVP资格,一系列“富有创意”的行政手段,让数万名国际学生和学者的命运悬于一线,也和可能彻底改变美国高校与联邦政府的关系。 这场风暴的背后,是共和党与精英教育长达十年的积怨,还是特朗普政府目标明确的政治策略?面对相似的压力,为何哥伦比亚大学选择“屈服”,而哈佛大学最终奋起反击? 本期节目,我们与持续报道该事件的记者Ava一起,复盘这场震动美国高等教育界的冲突。 播客文字稿(付费会员专享):https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-war-on-harvard-ivy-league-schools-transcript/ 本期节目录制于6月12日。据《纽约时报》6月21日报道,哈佛大学与特朗普政府本周重启谈判,试图解决双方激烈争议。在本周的白宫会议上,哈佛代表展示了学校在反犹主义、观点多样性和招生方面采取的措施,白宫随后发出信函列出了解决冲突的条件。尽管特朗普在社交媒体上声称「很可能在下周左右宣布协议」,但知情人士表示短期内达成协议的可能性不大。可能的协议框架包括政府恢复部分研究资金并停止法律行动,作为交换,哈佛需在反犹主义和观点多样性问题上采取更积极措施。哈佛官员表示,面对政府持续的资金削减和调查威胁,学校几乎别无选择只能寻求和解,尽管这可能招致支持者对其「妥协」的批评。白宫希望与哈佛的协议能成为其他精英大学与政府达成类似协议的框架。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:00:55 特朗普政府与美国精英高校的冲突全面升级 00:02:33 从“刘丽君”到撤销SEVP:特朗普政府如何对哈佛等高校步步紧逼? 00:05:14 “哥大跪了,哈佛没跪”?——哈佛法律反击背后的策略与无奈 00:12:07 SEVP是什么?特朗普政府如何将移民法条文“武器化”? 00:20:21 “教育极化”:共和党为何将精英高校视为“敌人”? 00:28:48 从希望到麻木:留学生在政治风暴中的真实心态 00:30:55 “合法”与“非法”的距离:当有证移民一夜之间身份不保 00:46:57 薛定谔的身份:美国移民政策的高度技术性与“创意性”打击 01:00:06 美国最好的“出口产品”?——高等教育的价值与危机 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Lokin:美国法学院毕业生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 小华:媒体人 曹起曈:青椒,政治行为研究者 Ava:记者,留子,卫报撰稿人 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 The confrontation between the Trump administration and America's top universities has escalated. From drastic cuts to federal funding and launching investigations in the name of combating antisemitism, to revoking Harvard University's SEVP certification for enrolling international students, a series of "creative" administrative measures has left the fate of tens of thousands of international students and scholars hanging in the balance, and could fundamentally alter the relationship between American universities and the federal government. Behind this storm, is it a decade-long resentment from the Republican party towards elite education, or a calculated political strategy by the Trump administration? Faced with similar pressures, why did Columbia University choose to "surrender," while Harvard ultimately fought back? In this episode, we are joined by journalist Ava, who has been covering this story, to break down the conflict that has shaken the world of American higher education. Transcript (Paid Members Exclusive): https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-war-on-harvard-ivy-league-schools-transcript/ This episode was recorded on June 12. According to a June 21 report from The New York Times, Harvard University and the Trump administration have resumed negotiations this week to resolve their intense dispute. In a White House meeting this week, Harvard representatives presented the steps the school has taken on antisemitism, viewpoint diversity, and admissions, and the White House subsequently sent a letter outlining the conditions for resolving the conflict. Although Trump claimed on social media that an agreement is "likely to be announced sometime next week," sources familiar with the matter say a short-term deal is unlikely. A potential agreement framework could include the government restoring some research funding and halting legal actions, in exchange for Harvard taking more aggressive measures on antisemitism and viewpoint diversity. Harvard officials have stated that facing continuous funding cuts and the threat of investigations from the government, the university has little choice but to seek a settlement, even though this may draw criticism from its supporters for "compromising." The White House hopes that an agreement with Harvard can serve as a framework for similar deals with other elite universities. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:00:55 The Trump Administration's Escalating Conflict with Elite U.S. Universities 00:02:33 From "Liu Lijun" to Revoking SEVP: How the Trump Admin Cornered Harvard and Other Universities 00:05:14 "Columbia Caved, Harvard Didn't"? The Strategy and Helplessness Behind Harvard's Legal Fightback 00:12:07 What is SEVP? How the Trump Administration Weaponized Immigration Law 00:20:21 "Educational Polarization": Why the GOP Views Elite Universities as "The Enemy" 00:28:48 From Hope to Numbness: The Real Mindset of International Students in the Political Storm 00:30:55 The Thin Line Between "Legal" and "Illegal": When Documented Immigrants Lose Their Status Overnight 00:46:57 Schrödinger's Status: The Highly Technical and "Creative" Attacks of U.S. Immigration Policy 01:00:06 America's Best "Export"? The Value and Crisis of Higher Education 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School Ava: Journalist and international student, contributor to The Guardian The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【The Links】 https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-uncertain-future-of-a-chinese-student-at-harvard https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/us/politics/harvard-federal-funding-trump.html https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/17-965_h315.pdf Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

66分钟
6k+
3天前

056 | 伊朗、移民、「大而美法案」:特朗普如何重塑美国外交与内政 Trump's Gamble on Iran, Immigration, and the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】 在加州洛杉矶,一场大规模移民执法行动引爆了特朗普政府与州政府的激烈对抗,街头抗议随之而来,国民警卫队被联邦强行接管。与此同时,在中东,特朗普下令空袭伊朗核设施,将地区局势推向战争边缘,却又在短短几天内迅速达成停火。而在华盛顿,共和党人寄予厚望的“大而美法案”在参议院遭遇程序性障碍,内部矛盾重重。 这些行动将如何影响美国的内政、外交和即将到来的中期选举? 我们在本期节目中复盘特朗普政府这充满动荡的一个月,探讨了美伊冲突的来龙去脉与特朗普的政治算盘,分析了移民执法行动所引发的社会危机与宪政冲突,并解读了“大而美法案”在参议院推进的最新进展和幕后博弈。 播客文字稿(付费会员专享):https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-iran-immigration-big-beautiful-bill-transcript/ 本期节目录制于6月23日。6月28日,参议院共和党经过超过三小时的激烈辩论后,以51-49的微弱优势通过了“大而美法案”的程序性投票,距离法案正式通过参议院又进一步。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:35 美伊冲突:从升级到迅速降温 03:25 特朗普的“闪电战”:美伊冲突中的政治得失 06:35 美伊冲突下的共和党内部分歧 10:17 总统的战争权力与宪法争议 13:40 民调的悖论:特朗普决策的考量 21:56 洛杉矶移民执法风暴 24:19 罕见之举:特朗普下令联邦化加州国民警卫队 35:02 移民政策的经济后果与政策反复 38:33 州长纽森的强硬应对与民主党的移民难题 47:28 “大而美法案”在参议院遇阻:揭秘“博德洗礼”程序 01:01:35 为何“大而美法案”不受欢迎却必须通过? 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华:媒体人 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 In Los Angeles, California, a large-scale immigration enforcement operation by the Trump administration has ignited a fierce confrontation with the state government. Street protests erupted, and the National Guard was forcibly federalized. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, President Trump ordered airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, pushing the region to the brink of war, only to broker a swift ceasefire within days. And in Washington, the Republican's much-anticipated "One Big Beautiful Bill" has hit procedural roadblocks in the Senate, revealing deep internal divisions. How will these actions impact America's domestic policy, foreign affairs, and the upcoming midterm elections? In this episode, we recap a turbulent month for the Trump administration. We explore the timeline and political calculus behind the U.S.-Iran conflict, analyze the social and constitutional crises sparked by the immigration enforcement actions, and break down the latest developments and behind-the-scenes maneuvering of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" in the Senate. Podcast Transcript (Paid Members Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-iran-immigration-big-beautiful-bill-transcript/ This episode was recorded on June 23. On June 28, after more than three hours of intense debate, Senate Republicans passed a procedural vote on the "One Big Beautiful Bill" with a narrow 51-49 majority, moving it one step closer to full Senate passage. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:35 The U.S.-Iran Conflict: From Escalation to a Swift Ceasefire 03:25 Trump's "Blitz": Political Gains and Losses in the Iran Conflict 06:35 Republican Divisions in the Wake of the Iran Conflict 10:17 Presidential War Powers and Constitutional Debates 13:40 The Polls Paradox: The Real Considerations Behind Trump's Decisions 21:56 The Immigration Enforcement Storm in Los Angeles 24:19 A Rare Move: Trump Orders the Federalization of the California National Guard 35:02 Economic Fallout and Policy Reversals of Immigration Policies 38:33 Governor Newsom's Tough Stance and the Democrats' Immigration Dilemma 47:28 "One Big Beautiful Bill" Hits a Snag in the Senate: Unpacking the "Byrd Bath" 01:01:35 Why the "Big Beautiful Bill" Must Pass Despite Its Unpopularity 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

71分钟
21k+
3天前
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去找些喜欢的节目添加进来吧