【聊了什么】 特朗普总统的第二任期已经过去了一年，在这一年之中，美国政治是一如既往的精彩。特别是特朗普本人，不管是在内政还是外交上，都以一种不可置疑的方式，不停地发出各种指令，改变着美国。更重要的是这一系列的操作似乎并没有受到太大的阻力。如今他看起来并不是民选国家的领导人，更像是一个专制独裁国家的君主，不受到任何的约束。 为什么会出现这样的情况？这是只会发生在特朗普身上的个例，还是背后有着更深层次的原因。为什么美国总统们的权力会越来越大，民主党和共和党对于总统制的理解有何不同。为什么对于特朗普的反制措施都没有取得效果。本期节目，我们从小阿瑟•M.施莱辛格《帝王总统》出发，来试图给这一系列的问题作出解答。 本期节目为talich在《以读攻读》的串台，欢迎在各平台关注《以读攻读》。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 04:39 今天有多少美国人觉得特朗普的权力过大了 05:59 美国国父们设计总统制的初衷 09:37 总统制与当时其他国家领袖制度的对比 13:14 美国制宪会议上如何划分总统的权力 19:03 美国总统为什么想要扩张自己的权力 22:20 为什么外交领域成为了总统扩权的突破口 26:54 20世纪，美国成为行政国家的过程 33:18 行政国家的形成为什么给了总统更大的权力 37:32 总统竞选模式的改变导致了总统候选人有了更大的话语权 42:08 罗斯福和尼克松是如何扩张总统的权力 54:15 总统如何通过任命政务官加强自己权力 58:12 美国各界对于总统扩权的态度 1:01:05 Loper 案推翻 Chevron Deference 1:02:00 政治科学家对于总统权力的看法 1:11:45 70年代开始，共和党开始推行的“单一行政权理论” 1:16:33 法律上的原教旨主义如何支持“单一行政权理论” 1:30:19 美国政治中的总统周期理论 1:36:36 特朗普政府如何通过实践扩大自己的权力（针对法院的策略等） 1:40:05 “帝王总统制”的未来走向 1:51:01 选民认知对未来美国政治走势的影响 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 《以读攻读》主播： 黄哲成：《现代主义文学百年》《深焦 DeepFocus Radio》《以读攻读》主播 【 What We Talked About】 It has been one year since the start of President Trump's second term, and American politics has been as dramatic as ever. Trump himself, in particular, has been reshaping the United States—both domestically and internationally—by issuing directives with an air of absolute authority. More importantly, these actions seem to have met with little significant resistance. Today, he appears less like the leader of a democracy and more like the monarch of an autocratic regime, operating without restraint. Why is this happening? Is this a phenomenon unique to Trump, or are there deeper underlying causes? Why has the power of the U.S. presidency continued to expand? How do Democrats and Republicans differ in their understanding of the presidential system? And why have all attempts to check Trump's power failed to result in any change? In this episode, taking Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.'s The Imperial Presidency as our starting point, we attempt to answer these questions. Note: This is a crossover episode featuring talich on Yi Du Gong Du. Please follow "Yi Du Gong Du" on your favorite podcast platforms. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 04:39 How many Americans today believe Trump has too much power? 05:59 The Founding Fathers' original intent in designing the presidency. 09:37 Comparing the presidency to other leadership systems of that era. 13:14 How presidential powers were defined at the Constitutional Convention. 19:03 Why U.S. presidents seek to expand their power. 22:20 Why foreign policy became the gateway for expanding presidential authority. 26:54 The 20th Century: The process of America becoming an "Administrative State." 33:18 Why the rise of the Administrative State empowered the presidency. 37:32 How changes in campaigning increased the influence of presidential candidates. 42:08 How Roosevelt and Nixon expanded presidential power. 54:15 Strengthening power through political appointments. 58:12 Reactions across various sectors to the expansion of executive power. 1:01:05 Loper Bright and the overturning of Chevron deference. 1:02:00 Political scientists' views on presidential power. 1:11:45 The "Unitary Executive Theory" pushed by the Republican Party since the 1970s. 1:16:33 How legal Originalism supports the "Unitary Executive Theory." 1:30:19 The theory of presidential cycles in American politics. 1:36:36 How the Trump administration expanded power through practice (strategies against the courts, etc.). 1:40:05 The future trajectory of the "Imperial Presidency." 1:51:01 The impact of voter perception on the future of U.S. politics. 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Host of Yi Du Gong Du: Huang Zhecheng: An interesting but useless person, doing interesting but useless things. (Douban: @hzcneo) Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 破纪录的政府关门终于收场，但两党关于奥巴马医保补贴的争议依然存在悬念。与此同时，爱泼斯坦档案风波引发MAGA运动的“路线之争”，特朗普罕见地失去对基本盘的完全控制。这是否是特朗普“跛脚鸭”任期的开始？ 本期节目录制于美国当地时间11月17日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:03 回顾政府关门：为何民主党最终妥协 06:42 民主党内部分裂 13:08 关门斗争对共和党选民的冲击 18:37 奥巴马医保补贴的未来 24:46 民主党领导层Jeffries与Schumer的不同处境 32:42 爱泼斯坦档案如何让特朗普政府失控 43:27 MTG与特朗普的决裂：MAGA内部的路线斗争 59:23 特朗普“跛脚鸭”任期的开始？ 1:06:02 MAGA运动的未来与特朗普的政治遗产 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 The record-breaking government shutdown has finally come to a close, yet the bipartisan standoff over Obamacare subsidies remains in limbo. Meanwhile, the fallout from the Epstein files has ignited an internal rift within the MAGA movement, leading to a rare moment where Trump has lost full control over his base. Does this mark the beginning of Trump's "lame duck" presidency? This episode was recorded on the evening of November 17, U.S. time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:03 Recapping the Shutdown: Why the Democrats Finally Compromised 06:42 Internal Divisions Within the Democratic Party 13:08 The Shutdown's Impact on Republican Voters 18:37 The Future of Obamacare Subsidies 24:46 Democratic Leadership: The Divergent Paths of Jeffries and Schumer 32:42 How the Epstein Files Caused the Trump Administration to Lose Control 43:27 MTG Breaks with Trump: The Battle for the Direction of MAGA 59:23 The Beginning of Trump's "Lame Duck" Presidency? 1:06:02 The Future of the MAGA Movement and Trump’s Political Legacy 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 2025年11月4日，在美国多个州举行的地方选举中，民主党取得了压倒性胜利。从弗吉尼亚到新泽西的州长选举，再到纽约市长的争夺，民主党候选人几乎在所有关键战场都大获全胜。 这股蓝色浪潮的回归，究竟是选民对特朗普政府执政表现的公投，还是对高昂生活成本焦虑的集中爆发？本期节目，我们深入剖析这场“期期中选举”的结果，探讨其对政府关门、2026年中期选举乃至美国未来政治格局的影响。 本期节目录制于美国时间11月5日晚间。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-election-zohran-mamdani-nyc-virgina-jersey-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:42 2025年选举结果：民主党取得意外大胜 04:12 弗吉尼亚州选举复盘：斯潘伯格大胜，民主党全面巩固优势 11:56 斯潘伯格是怎样的候选人？ 15:46 新泽西州选举复盘：为何谢丽尔的胜利可能比斯潘伯格更惊艳？ 22:17 新泽西州的少数族裔选票流变：民主党收复拉丁裔与亚裔选民 25:04 纽约市长选举：民主社会主义者当选，「库默王朝」终结 34:27 世代差异与竞选创新：马姆达尼如何通过社群动员年轻人？ 39:12 选举后的叙事之争：温和派与左派，谁是真正赢家？ 43:39 民主党横扫全美 47:29 民主党重回「大帐篷」模式？一体多面的政党未来 53:32 加州50号公投通过：纽森的政治豪赌与全国选区重划战局 1:03:18 展望2026中期选举 1:06:55 政府关门危机进入深水区 1:10:05 最高法院审理特朗普关税权力案，保守派大法官态度微妙 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 On November 4, 2025, in local elections held across multiple U.S. states, the Democratic Party achieved a sweeping victory. From the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey to the race for Mayor of New York City, Democratic candidates were victorious in almost all key battlegrounds. Is this return of the "blue wave" a referendum on the performance of the Trump administration, or an eruption of anxiety over the high cost of living? In this episode, we deeply analyze the results of this "off-off-year" election, exploring its impact on a potential government shutdown, the 2026 midterm elections, and the future of the American political landscape. This episode was recorded on the evening of November 5th, US time. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-election-zohran-mamdani-nyc-virgina-jersey-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:42 2025 Election Results: Democrats Score a Surprise Landslide 04:12 Virginia Election Recap: Spanberger's Big Win, Democrats Consolidate Their Advantage 11:56 Who is Spanberger? 15:46 New Jersey Election Recap: Why Sherrill's Victory Might Be Even More Striking Than Spanberger's 22:17 Minority Vote Shifts in New Jersey: Democrats Win Back Latino and Asian Voters 25:04 New York City Mayoral Election: Democratic Socialist Elected, "Cuomo Dynasty" Ends 34:27 Generational Divides and Campaign Innovation: How Mamdani Mobilized Young People Through Community Organizing 39:12 The Post-Election Narrative Battle: Moderates vs. Progressives, Who Was the Real Winner? 43:39 Democrats Sweep Across the Nation 47:29 Are Democrats Returning to a "Big Tent" Model? The Multifaceted Future of the Party 53:32 California's Proposition 50 Passes: Newsom's Political Gamble and the National Redistricting Battle 1:03:18 Looking Ahead to the 2026 Midterms 1:06:55 Government Shutdown Crisis Enters Deep Waters 1:10:05 Supreme Court Hears Case on Trump's Tariff Powers, Conservative Justices' Stances Are Subtle 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接 The Links】 A Little-Noted Element Propelled Mamdani’s Rise: Gen Z Loneliness https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/nyregion/mamdani-young-voters.html Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 美国经济究竟是好是坏？一边是各大公司纷纷裁员，物价持续上涨，民众叫苦连天；另一边却是股市高歌猛进，AI叙事如火如荼。本期节目我们和《起朱楼宴宾客》主播大卫翁，在狂喜播客节远程连线，探讨美国经济体感与宏观数据之间的巨大鸿沟。尽管经济前景充满不确定性，美国股市却在AI叙事的驱动下持续上涨，将科技巨头、普通投资人都绑上了一艘“大船”。这艘船能航行多久？ 本期节目录制于美国时间11月1日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 03:35 美国政府还要持续多久 11:57 - 美国经济真的差吗？各行业体感差异巨大 28:56 矛盾的宏观数据：经济增长与就业疲软并存 37:44 特朗普对美联储和经济数据统计机构的挑战 44:15 美联储的独立性从何而来？ 57:01 经济下行，为何美股持续上涨？除了AI还有什么原因？ 1:08:17 听众问答 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 Is the American economy doing well or poorly? On one hand, major companies are laying off employees left and right, prices continue to rise, and people are complaining bitterly. On the other hand, the stock market keeps surging ahead, and the AI narrative is in full swing. In this episode, we connect remotely with David Weng, host of 《起朱楼宴宾客》, at the 狂喜 Podcast Festival to explore the enormous gap between how the American economy feels on the ground and what macroeconomic data shows. Despite widespread economic uncertainty, the US stock market continues to climb driven by the AI narrative, tying tech giants and ordinary investors alike to the same "ship." How long can this ship keep sailing? This episode was recorded on the evening of November 1st, US time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 03:35 How long will the American government last? 11:57 Is the American economy really struggling? Vastly different experiences across industries 28:56 Contradictory macroeconomic data: Economic growth coexisting with weak employment 37:44 Trump's challenges to the Federal Reserve and economic statistics agencies 44:15 Where does the Federal Reserve's independence come from? 57:01 Why does the US stock market keep rising amid economic decline? What other factors besides AI? 1:08:17 Listener Q&A 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 特朗普2.0执政百天过后，共和党正在国会推动一项被称为“大而美法案”（One Big Beautiful Bill）的一千多页的一揽子法案。这项法案试图将移民、税改、福利等多个领域的政策打包通过，让特朗普的议程永久化。这背后有何深层动机？为何选择在此时以这种方式推进？这项法案的具体内容是什么，又将对美国政治、经济及普通民众产生哪些深远影响？ 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/big-beautiful-bill-ugly-transcript/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:01:00 “大而美法案”（One Big Beautiful Bill）的背景与共和党动机 00:06:48 预算协调程序 (Budget Reconciliation) 详解 00:14:29 为何不单独延续税改，而选择“一揽子”方案？ 00:21:12 法案核心：减税措施详解 00:49:31 社会保障与福利改革：Medicaid与SNAP 01:08:16 法案中的开支增加项目 01:10:36 众议院投票的政治动态与特朗普的角色 01:15:54 法案在参议院的前景与挑战 01:22:22 法案对中期选举的潜在影响 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 Following President Trump 2.0's first 100 days in office, Republicans in Congress are pushing a more than 1,000-page megabill dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill." This legislation attempts to bundle policies across multiple domains, including tax reform, welfare, and immigration, aiming to make Trump's agenda permanent. What are the underlying motivations behind this move? Why choose this particular moment and method for advancement? What are the specific contents of this bill, and what profound impacts will it have on American politics, the economy, and ordinary people? Podcast Transcript (Paid Members Exclusive): https://theamericanroulette.com/big-beautiful-bill-ugly-transcript/ 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:01:00 The "One Big Beautiful Bill": Background & Republican Motivations 00:06:48 Budget Reconciliation Explained 00:14:29 Why a "Package Deal" Instead of Just Extending Tax Cuts? 00:21:12 Core of the Bill: Tax Cut Measures Explained 00:49:31 Social Security and Welfare Reform: Medicaid & SNAP 01:08:16 Spending Increases in the Bill 01:10:36 Political Dynamics of the House Vote and Trump's Role 01:15:54 The Bill's Prospects and Challenges in the Senate 01:22:22 Potential Impact of the Bill on Midterm Elections 【The Links】 https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-05/61422-Reconciliation-Distributional-Analysis.pdf https://theamericanroulette.com/tax-on-tips/ https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/ https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/opinion/josh-hawley-dont-cut-medicaid.html Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 2025年6月5日，美国总统特朗普与世界首富马斯克在社交媒体上展开激烈公开争吵，二人的政治联盟正式宣告（暂时）破裂。从马斯克公开抨击共和党的“大而美法案”，到特朗普暗示其患有“特朗普精神错乱综合症”，再到马斯克抛出所谓“爱泼斯坦档案”的重磅炸弹，双方的矛盾在短短一天内迅速激化，隔空骂战不断升级。 本期节目复盘这场引爆舆论的风暴。我们探讨了这场争吵究竟是源于原则之争，还是赤裸裸的利益冲突？马斯克在共和党和MAGA运动中的影响力究竟有多大，他是否高估了自己？这场风暴又将如何影响“大而美”法案的参议院前景。 本期节目录制于2025年6月5日美国东部时间晚间10点左右。 【美轮美换 × 疲惫娇娃线上读书会】 我们最近将与友台《疲惫娇娃》联合举办一场线上读书会活动，这次讨论的是今年的一本新书——《Abundance》。 读书会对美轮美换付费会员免费开放（请使用会员邮箱登录在下方页面获取折扣码），也欢迎大家打赏支持。 详情请见此链接：https://theamericanroulette.com/hui-yuan-huo-dong-mei-lun-mei-huan-x-pi-bei-jiao-wa-xian-shang-du-shu-hui-abundance/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:00:36 特朗普与马斯克公开决裂 00:07:11 决裂背后的三种理论：原则之争、利益冲突还是积怨已久？ 00:14:04 决裂风波对“大而美法案”的影响：参议院政治博弈与法案前景 00:17:43 意见领袖还是负资产？马斯克的政治影响力与民主党应对策略 00:26:28 马斯克的底牌与共和党内派系斗争 00:39:34 马斯克与政治的“水土不服” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 On June 5, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and the world's richest man, Elon Musk, erupted into a fierce public dispute on social media, marking the formal (and temporary) rupture of their political alliance. From Musk's public criticism of the Republican "Big Beautiful Bill" to Trump suggesting Musk suffers from "Trump Derangement Syndrome," and then to Musk dropping the bombshell of the so-called "Epstein files," the conflict between the two escalated rapidly within a single day, with their war of words intensifying online. This episode unpacks this firestorm that has captivated public attention. We explore whether this feud stems from a clash of principles or a naked conflict of interest. We assess the true extent of Musk's influence within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, and whether he overestimated his own standing. Finally, we analyze how this fallout will impact the prospects of the "Big Beautiful Bill" bill in the Senate. This episode was recorded on June 5, 2025, at approximately 10 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:00:36 Trump and Musk's Public Fallout 00:07:11 Three Theories Behind the Fallout: A Clash of Principles, a Conflict of Interest, or a Long-Building Feud? 00:14:04 The Fallout's Impact on the 'Big and Beautiful Bill': Senate Politics and the Bill's Future 00:17:43 An Opinion Leader or a Liability? Musk's Political Influence and the Democrats' Strategy 00:26:28 Musk's Leverage and Republican Infighting 00:39:34 Musk's Awkward Fit in Politics 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【The Links】 https://theamericanroulette.com/elon-musk-donald-trump/ Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 “鸡毛秀”停播风波不仅是一场关于言论自由的攻防战，更是美国传统媒体结构性危机的集中爆发。本期节目从这起风波说起，回溯美国广播电视网与地方台独特的共生关系，以及监管机构FCC在其中扮演的角色。 当旧的秩序摇摇欲坠，新的变革也已登堂入室。我们同时将目光投向另一家传统媒体巨头CBS，探讨Bari Weiss的“空降”将给传统新闻编辑室带来怎样的颠覆性实验。一边是在旧体系内艰难挣扎的深夜秀，一边是试图从内部进行激进重塑的百年新闻部。当百年形成的媒体结构遭遇政治极化与新技术的双重冲击，传统电视的未来将走向何方？ 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/jimmy-kimmel-abc-disney-cbs-news-bari-weiss-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:40 Jimmy Kimmel因评论Charlie Kirk被ABC停播事件始末 05:05 FCC直接施压的阴影 09:10 深夜秀的历史 15:55 “末代主播”？深夜秀的商业模式危机 25:36 地方电视台巨头Sinclair和Nextstar在此次事件中的关键角色 26:19 全国广播网 (Network) 与地方加盟台 (Affiliate) 的博弈 32:43 地方媒体集团的崛起与政治倾向化（以Sinclair为例） 38:38 FCC（联邦通信委员会）的权力杠杆 49:06 FCC的内容审查边界：从“公共利益”原则的演变看政府监管的合法性 62:47 FCC主席的威胁是否违反第一修正案？ 66:59 对比特朗普与拜登政府的“Jawboning” 72:15 CEO的误判？迪士尼Bob Iger的“缓兵之计”为何失败 82:02 为何大公司在特朗普2.0时代集体“变软”？集体行动的困境 85:50 David Ellison入主派拉蒙与Bari Weiss执掌CBS新闻 90:12 Bari Weiss的挑战：新媒体“网红”能否管理好百年新闻机构？ 106:24 福克斯的“减法”策略与继承人问题的解决 109:35 传统媒体的核心价值还剩下什么？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人 杨一：旅英媒体人 品达：美国政治观察人士 【 What We Talked About】 The suspension of Jimmy Kimmel Live was more than a free speech debate—it was a flare-up of the deep, structural crisis in American media. This episode unpacks that crisis, from the complex relationship between networks and local affiliates to the power of the FCC. While the old system crumbles, a radical new experiment is underway at CBS. We examine what happens when an outsider like Bari Weiss is put in charge of a traditional newsroom—a story of external pressure versus a high-stakes internal overhaul. Facing political division and technological disruption, what is the future of traditional TV? Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/jimmy-kimmel-abc-disney-cbs-news-bari-weiss-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:40 The Jimmy Kimmel Suspension: A Breakdown of the Controversy Over His Charlie Kirk Comments 05:05 The Shadow of Direct FCC Pressure 09:10 The History of Late Night 15:55 "The Final Generation"? The Business Model Crisis Facing Late Night 25:36 The Key Role of Local TV Giants Sinclair and Nextstar 26:19 The Power Struggle Between National Networks and Local Affiliates 32:43 The Rise and Politicization of Local Media Groups (The Case of Sinclair) 38:38 The FCC's Regulatory Leverage 49:06 The Limits of FCC Content Regulation: Legitimacy and the Evolving "Public Interest" Doctrine 62:47 Did the FCC Chairman's Threats Violate the First Amendment? 66:59 Comparing Government "Jawboning": Trump vs. Biden 72:15 A CEO's Miscalculation? Why Disney's Bob Iger's Delaying Tactic Backfired 82:02 Why Big Business is Bending the Knee to Trump 2.0: The Dilemma of Collective Action 85:50 New Leadership: David Ellison at Paramount & Bari Weiss at CBS News 90:12 The Bari Weiss Challenge: Can a New Media Influencer Run a Legacy News Institution? 106:24 Fox's Streamlining Strategy and the Murdoch Succession Solution 109:35 What Core Value Remains for Traditional Media? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Yang Yi: Journalist based in London Pinda：American political enthusiast Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 美国联邦政府时隔七年再度关门，这不仅是预算之争，更是两党围绕奥巴马医改补贴和行政权力的政治赌博。民主党看似手握医保这一民生王牌，民调也明显占有，为何攻势疲软？特朗普政府在《2025计划》的操盘手Russell Vought的推动下试图借机进一步削弱联邦政府，是否能成功？这场闹剧会像以往一样无疾而终？ 本期节目录制于2025年10月4日。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-government-shutdown-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:00 时隔7年，美国联邦政府再次停摆 02:18 什么是政府关门？“必要”和“非必要”服务如何划分？ 05:26 从克林顿、奥巴马到特朗普时期的政府关门 09:13 提出政治要求的一方通常会失败 12:16 本次关门核心争议 13:28 两党各自的政治算盘：为何双方都觉得关门对自己有利？ 17:21 - 关门对联邦雇员和公共服务的影响 19:00 预算管理局（OMB）主任Russell Vought想借机削减联邦政府 21:52 奥巴马医改“补贴悬崖”与拜登时期加强版补贴到期问题 30:23 民主党的议题选择：从弱势的移民问题转向强势的医保问题 39:39 民主党攻势为何“雷声大雨点小”？党内分歧与领导层顾虑 42:03 共和党的反击策略：将医保问题与非法移民捆绑 53:20 关门对弗吉尼亚和新泽西州长选举的潜在影响 58:04 为何共和党不愿为预算案废除“冗长辩论”？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 The U.S. federal government has shut down again after seven years—this is not merely a budget dispute, but a political gamble between the two parties over Affordable Care Act subsidies and executive power. The Democrats seemingly hold the trump card of healthcare, a vital public concern, and polls are clearly in their favor, so why is their offensive so weak? The Trump administration, driven by Russell Vought, the mastermind behind Project 2025, is attempting to use this opportunity to further weaken the federal government—will they succeed? Will this spectacle fizzle out like previous shutdowns? This episode was recorded on October 4, 2025. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-government-shutdown-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:00 After 7 years, the U.S. federal government shuts down again 02:18 What is a government shutdown? How are "essential" and "non-essential" services defined? 05:26 Government shutdowns from the Clinton, Obama, and Trump eras 09:13 The side making political demands typically loses 12:16 Core disputes in this shutdown 13:28 Each party's political calculus: Why do both sides think the shutdown benefits them? 17:21 Impact of the shutdown on federal employees and public services 19:00 OMB Director Russell Vought seeks to use this opportunity to downsize the federal government 21:52 The Affordable Care Act "subsidy cliff" and the expiration of enhanced Biden-era subsidies 30:23 Democrats' issue selection: Shifting from the weak immigration issue to the strong healthcare issue 39:39 Why is the Democrats' offensive "all bark and no bite"? Internal divisions and leadership concerns 42:03 Republican counterattack strategy: Tying healthcare to illegal immigration 53:20 Potential impact of the shutdown on Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections 58:04 Why Republicans are unwilling to eliminate the filibuster for the budget bill 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 本期节目，我们与播客疲惫娇娃的主播们，聊了Ari Aster的最新电影《爱丁顿》(Eddington)——一部让人看完想骂街，但又忍不住要深度分析的作品。这位以《仲夏夜惊魂》和《遗传厄运》闻名的导演，这次把镜头对准了2020年5月疫情初期的美国小镇，用西部片的外壳包装了一个关于社交媒体如何撕裂社群的恐怖故事。Joaquin Phoenix饰演的老派警长Joe Cross和Pedro Pascal饰演的自由派市长在这个巴掌大的新墨西哥小镇展开政治对决，而真正的赢家却是那个从头到尾都面目模糊的科技巨头——他们要在这里建数据中心。我们从这部极具争议性的电影聊开去，探讨了BLM运动的社交媒体化、取消文化的游戏规则、以及阴谋论如何在小镇邻里间传播。最终发现，当所有人都在网上吵成一团的时候，真正的危机——AI和大科技公司——已经悄悄占领了现实世界。 本期节目录制于2025年9月7日。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:12 - Vibe Shift：从Covid到现在的时代精神转向 03:44 - Ari Aster这一次拍了个什么片？ 07:57 - 小镇警长和自由派精英的对决导演拉偏架了吗？ 16:57 - BLM运动的社交媒体化和"good trouble"的商品化 23:34 - 社交媒体游戏规则如何让所有人"吃相难看" 35:36 - 创伤如何成为舆论场的货币 40:07 - 小蓝的"假新闻田野调查" 46:31 - 电影结局的虚无主义倾向 49:31 - "SolidGoldMagikarp"彩蛋 53:30 - AI数据中心对美国小镇的真实影响 59:24 - 艺术家有权创作"残忍"艺术吗？ 1:11:12 - 爱丁顿里的真实社会议题 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人 小杨：疲惫娇娃主播 一芳：疲惫娇娃主播 小蓝：新新人类主播 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 This episode we dove into Ari Aster's latest film "Eddington"—a movie that'll make you want to throw things at the screen, but also can't stop you from obsessively analyzing every frame. The director behind "Midsommar" and "Hereditary" sets his sights on a fictional small American town during the early pandemic chaos of May 2020, wrapping a horror story about social media tearing communities apart in Western film genre. Joaquin Phoenix's old-school sheriff Joe Cross goes head-to-head with Pedro Pascal's liberal mayor in this tiny New Mexico town, while the real winner turns out to be the faceless tech giant that's been planning to build a data center there all along. We used this deeply polarizing film to unpack everything from how BLM got weaponized on social media, to the toxic rules of cancel culture, to how conspiracy theories spread like wildfire through small-town neighbor networks. The ending is both alarming and defeatist: while everyone was busy fighting online, the real crisis—AI and Big Tech—had already quietly taken over. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:12 - Vibe Shift: Zeitgeist transformation from pandemic to now 03:44 - Film plot overview: Political showdown in a New Mexico town 07:57 - Did Ari Aster put his thumb on the scale in the fight between the sheriff and the mayor 16:57 - The social media-ization of BLM and commodification of "good trouble" 23:34 - How social media rules make everyone look bad 35:36 - How trauma becomes currency in the discourse 40:07 - Xiao Lan's "fake news field research" 46:31 - The film's nihilistic ending 49:31 - "SolidGoldMagikarp" Easter egg 52:18 - Real impact of AI data centers on American small towns 59:24 - Do artists have the right to create "cruel" art? 1:11:12 - Real social issues plaiguing today's America in "Eddington" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 小杨 (Xiao Yang): Host of 疲惫娇娃 CyberPink 一芳 (Yi Fang): Host of 疲惫娇娃 CyberPink 小蓝 (Xiao Lan): Host of 新新人类 PixelPerfect The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 9月19日，特朗普政府突然宣布的H-1B签证的新政策在科技行业、留学生、工作签证社群中掀起滔天巨浪。高达十万美元的申请费、语焉不详的条文、朝令夕改的澄清，让无数人的职业规划与人生轨迹迅速陷入了巨大的不确定性。 当特朗普政府反移民的大刀砍向合法移民，特朗普一贯的“混乱治理”背后又有怎样的政治算计？天价“过路费”将如何重塑美国的人才竞争格局？与此同时推出的“黄金卡”又预示着怎样的未来？本期节目我们紧急解析这场H1B风暴的来龙去脉与影响。 本期节目录制于2025年9月21日。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/h1b-chaos-trump-immigration-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:30 特朗普政府H-1B新政引发的混乱和时间线 07:27 分析特朗普政府的TACO风格及其与第一任期的相似之处 08:03 探讨科技公司和马斯克在H-1B新政风波中的反应与角色 11:55 H-1B签证的起源、90年代的黄金期及后续的演变与困境 15:03 MAGA民粹派与硅谷保守派在H-1B议题上的根本冲突 16:23 为何拿H-1B开刀？分析合法移民群体在政治上的“边缘”地位 19:43 H-1B体系的滥用问题与改革的必要性 22:22 特朗普新政的“一刀切”象征意义大于实际改革 25:28 “禁穆令”判例和总统在移民事务上的巨大权力 29:02 特朗普的交易式思维 30:39 小布什、奥巴马时期综合性移民改革的历次尝试与失败 40:45 H-1B新政对留学生传统留美路径的冲击 42:13 对科技行业的冲击，初创公司与科技巨头的不同境遇 48:11 对印度、中国等移民来源国经济与人才流动的长远影响 51:39 特朗普政府的“黄金卡”项目：明码标价的移民新模式 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 游天龙：《选·美》栏目创始人之一，美国政治的资深门外汉。 【 What We Talked About】 On September 19th, the Trump administration's sudden announcement of new H-1B visa policies sent shockwaves through the tech industry, international student communities, and work visa holders. With application fees soaring to $100,000, vague and ambiguous provisions, and constantly shifting clarifications, countless people's career plans and life trajectories have been plunged into massive uncertainty. As the Trump administration's anti-immigration sword strikes at legal immigration, what political calculations lie behind Trump's signature "governance through chaos"? How will these exorbitant "toll fees" reshape America's talent competition landscape? What future does the simultaneously introduced "Golden Card" program portend? In this episode, we urgently analyze the origins and impacts of this H-1B storm. This episode was recorded on September 21, 2025. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/h1b-chaos-trump-immigration-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:30 The chaos and timeline triggered by the Trump administration's new H-1B policies 07:27 Analysis of the Trump administration's TACO style and similarities with his first term 08:03 Exploring tech companies' and Elon Musk's reactions and roles in the H-1B policy storm 11:55 The origins of H-1B visas, the golden age of the 90s, and subsequent evolution and challenges 15:03 The fundamental conflict between MAGA populists and Silicon Valley conservatives on H-1B issues 16:23 Why target H-1B? Analyzing legal immigrants' politically "marginalized" status 19:43 Abuse issues in the H-1B system and the necessity for reform 22:22 Trump's new policy: "one-size-fits-all" approach more symbolic than substantive reform 25:28 The "Muslim Ban" precedent and presidential powers over immigration matters 29:02 Trump's transactional thinking 30:39 Repeated attempts and failures at comprehensive immigration reform during the Bush and Obama eras 40:45 Impact of new H-1B policies on international students' traditional pathways to staying in the US 42:13 Impact on the tech industry: different fates for startups versus tech giants 48:11 Long-term effects on economies and talent flows of immigrant source countries like India and China 51:39 The Trump administration's "Golden Card" program: A new immigration model with explicit price tags 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 游天龙 (Tinalong You): Co-founder of iAmElection, seasoned outside observer of American politics 【拓展链接 The Links】 https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/border-crisis-immigration-reform https://shop.vistopia.com.cn/article?article_id=833225&share_uid=DjMtk https://shop.vistopia.com.cn/article?article_id=838725&share_uid=rYoKq https://theamericanroulette.com/mei-guo-h-1bxin-zheng-jiang-shen-ke-ying-xiang-zhong-mei-ke-ji-xing-ye-fa-zhan/ https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-h1b-ban/ Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 9月10日，美国保守派青年运动领袖、TPUSA创始人查理·柯克遇刺身亡，震动全美。一个没有任何公职的“网红”，为何能成为特朗普核心圈层的“造王者”，撬动上亿美元资金，并让共和党精英、金主和普通年轻人为之倾倒？ 本期节目深入剖析查理·柯克的崛起，分析他如何将网红传播、校园组织和金主筹款融为一体，打造出独特的政治影响力机器。他的遇刺，又将如何影响特朗普主义和美国保守派运动的走向？ 本期节目录制于2025年9月13日。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/charlie-kirk-violence-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:34 查理·柯克遇刺事件回顾 03:39 柯克为何有如此大的影响力和2024年大选中的关键作用 06:30 柯克的三大核心能力：与年轻人沟通、构建组织网络、向金主筹款 09:09 TPUSA如何构建覆盖美国学校的组织网络 12:10 柯克政治对特朗普的影响和保守派内部的张力 20:07 TPUSA如何建立起校园政治网络 43:58 柯克的思想转变：从自由意志主义者到特朗普民粹主义者，再到基督教民族主义者 48:58 柯克 vs. 万斯 52:32 枪击案发生后的信息真空下的各种猜测与媒体的矛盾报道 54:20 枪手：一个被网络亚文化和游戏烂梗塑造的“extremely online”的青年 56:55 FBI局长Kash Patel的争议 1:00:52 当政治暴力成为一种“行为艺术”和“线下烂梗” 1:05:54 犹他州州长Spencer Cox的反应 1:09:04 这会是美国政治的“国会纵火案”吗？ 1:14:09 TPUSA的未来：柯克死后，这个高度依赖其个人魅力的组织能否持续？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 On September 10th, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, leader of the American conservative youth movement and founder of TPUSA, sent shockwaves across the nation. How did an 'influencer' with no public office become a 'kingmaker' in Trump's inner circle, leveraging hundreds of millions of dollars and captivating Republican elites, donors, and young people alike? This episode provides an in-depth analysis of Charlie Kirk's rise, examining how he integrated influencer-style communication, campus organizing, and major donor fundraising to build a unique political influence machine. How will his assassination impact the future of Trumpism and the American conservative movement? This episode was recorded on September 13, 2025. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/charlie-kirk-violence-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:34 A review of the Charlie Kirk assassination incident 03:39 Why Kirk had such immense influence and his key role in the 2024 election 06:30 Kirk's three core abilities: communicating with young people, building organizational networks, and fundraising from major donors 09:09 How TPUSA built an organizational network covering American schools 12:10 Kirk's political influence on Trump and the internal tensions within the conservative movement 20:07 How TPUSA established its campus political network 43:58 Kirk's ideological evolution: from a libertarian to a Trump populist, and then to a Christian nationalist 48:58 Kirk vs. Vance 52:32 The information vacuum after the shooting: various speculations and contradictory media reports 54:20 The shooter: An "extremely online" youth shaped by internet subcultures and toxic gaming memes 56:55 The controversy surrounding FBI Director Kash Patel 1:00:52 When political violence becomes a form of "performance art" and an "offline toxic meme" 1:05:54 The reaction of Utah Governor Spencer Cox 1:09:04 Could this be the "Reichstag fire" of American politics? 1:14:09 The future of TPUSA: After Kirk's death, can this organization, highly dependent on his personal charisma, survive? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 夏天通常是美国政治新闻周期比较缓慢的季节，但今年夏天的新闻并不少。在夏天的尾巴，“特朗普病危”的谣言突然在社交媒体上传播，暴露了“老皇帝”和“新太子”的微妙关系。与此同时，一场争夺国会控制权的战争已在地图上打响。从德州共和党的坚决出手，到加州民主党的强硬反制，两党围绕选区划分展开了极限攻防。这场“以火攻火”的对决将如何收场？加州州长纽森模仿特朗普的“烂梗”战术，是奇招还是险棋？ 本期节目录制于9月1日。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/redistricting-texas-california-newsom-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 02:51 特朗普健康状况 10:52 进入本期核心——国会选区重划之争 12:04 什么是Gerrymandering？从历史起源到当代实践 15:50 “一人一票”原则的法律演进 21:49 “公平”的困境：独立委员会、党派利益与政治地理的冲突 36:11 《投票权法案》（VRA）的角色 46:31 德州战场：共和党如何通过重划选区谋求5个新增席位 53:05 加州反击：纽森领导的“以牙还牙”策略及其公投挑战 1:01:30 全国军备竞赛：两党在各州选区的未来布局与潜在战场 1:09:13 模仿还是超越？加州州长纽森的“网红”政治策略分析 1:21:25 民主党的未来路线之争：效仿特朗普还是坚持传统？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 Summer is usually a slower season for the American political news cycle, but there has been no shortage of news this summer. At the tail end of the summer, a rumor that "Trump is critically ill or dead" suddenly spread on social media, exposing the delicate relationship between the "old emperor" and the "new prince." Meanwhile, a battle for control of Congress has already begun on the electoral map. From the Texas Republican Party's move to the California Democratic Party's ountermeasures, the two parties have engaged in an extreme offense and defense over redistricting. How will this "fighting fire with fire" showdown end? Is California Governor Newsom's tactic of imitating Trump a brilliant move or a risky gamble? This episode was recorded on September 1st. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/redistricting-texas-california-newsom-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 02:51 Trump's Health Condition 10:52 The Core Topic of This Episode: The Battle Over Congressional Redistricting 12:04 What is Gerrymandering? From its Historical Origins to Modern Practices 15:50 The Legal Evolution of the "One Person, One Vote" Principle 21:49 The Dilemma of "Fairness": The Conflict Between Independent Commissions, Partisan Interests, and Political Geography 36:11 The Role of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) 46:31 The Texas Battlefield: How the Republican Party Aims to Gain 5 New Seats Through Redistricting 53:05 California's Counterattack: Newsom's "Eye for an Eye" Strategy and its Referendum Challenge 1:01:30 A Nationwide Arms Race: The Two Parties' Future Strategies and Potential Battlegrounds in State Districts 1:09:13 Imitation or Transcendence? An Analysis of California Governor Newsom's "Influencer" Political Strategy 1:21:25 The Democratic Party's Debate Over its Future Path: Imitate Trump or Stick to Tradition? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【The Links】 If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/upshot/redistricting-analysis-2026-midterms.html Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助