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Ep 38 | 当 140 个巨头联手围剿一家公司, 这到底是坏消息还是好消息?

Ep 38 | 当 140 个巨头联手围剿一家公司, 这到底是坏消息还是好消息?

非共识的20分钟

你会听到: * 140 个巨头宣布围剿 Circle,股价收盘跌 17.5%——但真的吗? * 机制拆解 · Open USD 是什么:Zach Abrams / Open Standard、零费+分钱+共同治理、Abrams vs Allaire 隔空表态、Coinbase 的 Centre 反讽 * 框架一 · 联盟的墓地:Libra、CurrentC、we.trade、Marco Polo,为什么巨头联手大多失败 * 框架二 · 反向确认:你不会为了小市场动员 140 个巨头——蛋糕到底有多大 * 框架三 · 没有好资产坏资产,只有好价格坏价格:Circle 从 $299 到 $63 * 框架四 · 唯一的门:为什么想配稳定币,绕不开 Circle * 框架五 · 会怎么出错:估值、Coinbase 八月谈判、利率、份额侵蚀 * 好公司配恐慌价格,但在那之前,我们看着、等着 Open USD 机制速览: 是谁:独立公司 Open Standard 运营,创始 CEO Zach Abrams(Stripe 2024 年以约 $11 亿收购的 Bridge 联创),年内上线,原生首发 Solana。 三条设计原则:① 零费铸赎、无额度上限;② 储备利息扣小额管理费后几乎全返合作方(直接反转"发行方吃息"模式);③ 140 家合作方董事会共同治理,无单一控股方。 Abrams 定位:"为互联网经济打造、由做大生意的企业共同设计的稳定币"——句句戳 Circle"封闭/贵/利益不一致"的痛点。 Allaire 回应:不正面接招,把话题拉大到"全世界最大的市场机会之一",欢迎竞争——本质是淡化威胁 + 引向"蛋糕之大"。 反讽:Coinbase 是 Open USD 发起方,但 USDC 最初正是 2018 年 Circle 与 Coinbase 共建 Centre 的产物(2023 解散)。老搭档绕一圈站到了对面。 本期图表: 五个核心观点: * 联盟的墓地:巨头联手建共同产品,历史大概率死于协调失败——人人拥有,无人驾驶。 * 反向确认:你不会为小市场动员 140 个巨头;他们的出现,确认了赛道天花板极高。 * 增量 vs 存量:~$317B 的盘子在快速做大,竞争是圈地不是内卷。真问题是蛋糕多大、Circle 守住多少份额。 * 价格思维:没有好资产坏资产,只有好价格坏价格。$299 的 Circle 是坏资产,$66、业务翻倍是另一回事。 * 会怎么出错:估值不便宜(~5倍PB/6倍PS)、Coinbase 八月重谈、~97% 收入靠利率、份额可能被侵蚀。 ------ 了解更多: Jason X | NDV X | NDV 官网 | 公众号:NextGen Digital Venture ------ 声明:本节⽬内容仅供信息分享与学术探讨,不构成任何形式的投资建议。所有分析、观点及案例均不指向推荐任何具体投资标的或操作。投资决策须由您基于个⼈独⽴研究作出,并⾃⾏承担全部⻛险。市场有⻛险,投资需谨慎。 ------ 【收听延伸与交流】 欢迎加入我们的听友群,一起探讨你的“非共识”。 世界没有标准答案,我们欢迎一切有价值的思考碰撞。 添加「非共识的20分钟-课代表」,即可入群交流。 另外,为了给购买过付费节目的听友提供更聚焦、更高质量的交流空间,我们新建了「资深交流群」,面向已购买《非共识的 20 分钟》任意付费集的听友开放。已购买付费节目的听友,可添加「非共识的20分钟-课代表」了解详情。需提供购买记录截图,核验后入群。 *社群内所有讨论仅为听友间的观点交流与学术探讨,不构成任何投资建议。

18分钟
4k+
1周前
7月3日 周五. 「香奈儿」收购188年男装品牌/「苏宁易购」200万元甩卖家乐福/「Meta」千亿算力要往外租

7月3日 周五. 「香奈儿」收购188年男装品牌/「苏宁易购」200万元甩卖家乐福/「Meta」千亿算力要往外租

商业早8点

为什么科技巨头Meta突然要把上千亿美元的算力往外租?苏宁易购为何用200万元就甩卖了当年近50亿买来的家乐福?路边那些让你还不回去的山寨共享充电宝,到底是怎么算计你的?今天的商业早8点,我们就来聊聊这些问题。 ☀️ 早上好,欢迎收听《商业早8点》 🙋 今天是2026年7月3日,星期五 ⌛️ 商业小知识 00:54 为什么品牌请明星代言,喜欢把头衔分得很细? 核心原因是品牌预算在缩紧,追求高投资回报率。把代言头衔拆细,就像精准投放广告,品牌可以用有限的钱,在特定节点精准覆盖不同明星背后的细分粉丝群体,这已变成一套精打细算的流量变现工具。 😎 商业最前线 01:40 01:40 山寨共享充电宝靠外观碰瓷大品牌让消费者因难以归还被迫支付买断费 02:32 苏宁易购以200万元转让家乐福中国运营主体剥离亏损包袱重回3C主业 03:21 Meta拟组建云业务向外部客户出租过剩AI算力引发美股半导体板块大跌 04:18 美伊在多哈重启技术性会谈双方同意停止相互军事打击以缓和紧张氛围 下面是一组快讯 05:14 首部明确超龄劳动者权益保障的暂行规定落地填补了劳动安全法律空白 05:39 离境退税迈入无纸化时代对小额申请单实行抽检制为入境消费注入动力 05:56 淘宝在成都深圳灰度测试与米其林餐厅合作的高端外卖项目名为家宴 06:20 国内航线燃油附加费迎来今年第二次下调800公里以上航线降至100元 06:44 伊利冷饮铺设智能和冷链网络以应对消费市场多品类小批量的需求转变 07:01 香奈儿宣布收购拥有188年历史的巴黎男装衬衫定制品牌Charvet 07:22 亚马逊云科技将投10亿美元组建团队帮客户将AI部署周期缩至数天 07:44 苹果正在测试搭载M7芯片和均热板散热的新iPad Pro计划明年推出 08:04 凯恩梅开二度助英格兰逆转挺进16强其世界杯总进球数超越贝利 🧐 商业深一度 08:35 30块成本的「山寨充电宝」,如何靠99元“买断费”日赚暴利? 如今在街头借充电宝,你可能一不小心就会掉进被精心设计的盈利陷阱里。那些名叫“满电鸭”、“暴力充”的山寨货,靠模仿大牌外观叠放在正规机柜上钓鱼。今天,我们来深挖这条灰色产业链:它们是怎么利用极低的硬件成本和故意缩水的归还网点,把“还不回去”做成了一门两倍多利润的黑心生意的。 💫 关于《商业早8点》 《商业早8点》是一档为您高效同步每日商业动态的商业资讯栏目。 我们每日早间八点准时为您带来海内外最新商业动态与商业大事件的深度剖析。每日早8点,先人一步把握最新的商业脉搏。 在这个资本涌动与市场瞬息万变的时代,信息的密度与周期的更迭常常让人感到焦虑与迷茫。海量的噪音和碎片化的数据,往往掩盖了真正重要的商业信号。因此,《商业早8点》诞生了。借助人工智能辅助高效生成,我们希望用每天早晨的一杯咖啡时间,为你筛选出最具价值的全球商业动态,助你以此为点,连接财富与未来。 制作提示:本节目由真人团队主导选题创作剪辑和发布,并且复刻了主播之远的音色辅助制作,所有内容由真人把关,可以放心订阅。 主播:之远 @之远不知远 研究:和风细雨 后期:小达 🤝 商务合作请加V:prism_fm

12分钟
7k+
1周前
BBC Media|为何高温纪录不断被打破且大幅刷新?

BBC Media|为何高温纪录不断被打破且大幅刷新?

英音听力|BBC & 经济学人等

Why temperature records are being not only broken but smashed European farmers are still counting the cost of last year's drought, which saw plummeting yields of crops like maize and corn. But France today reported it's already short of water, and the European Environment Agency expects this to become a continent-wide problem. Paradoxically, this will also lead to worse flooding as more water evaporates and then eventually falls back to Earth. The agency's report also warns there'll be about 60 days each year so hot they're dangerous, and that European healthcare needs to adapt to cope with consequent rises in cardiovascular and respiratory illness. In the longer term, disease carrying insects like the tiger mosquito will thrive in the warmer climate. Predictions like this have previously been dismissed as scaremongering, but climate scientists say the changes are actually happening even faster than they expected. 词汇表 smash [smæʃ] vt. 打破,粉碎,刷新(纪录等) drought [draʊt] n. 干旱,旱灾 plummeting [ˈplʌmɪtɪŋ] adj. 暴跌的,骤降的 yield [jiːld] n. 产量,产出,收成 maize [meɪz] n. 玉米(英式英语,美式常用 corn) continent-wide [ˈkɒntɪnənt waɪd] adj. 遍及整个大陆的,全洲范围的 paradoxically [ˌpærəˈdɒksɪkli] adv. 自相矛盾地,悖论地 evaporate [ɪˈvæpəreɪt] vt./vi. (使)蒸发,消失 cardiovascular [ˌkɑːdiəʊˈvæskjələ(r)] adj. 心血管的 respiratory [rɪˈspaɪrətri] adj. 呼吸的,呼吸系统的 tiger mosquito 白纹伊蚊,虎蚊(一种可传播疾病的蚊子) thrive [θraɪv] vi. 茁壮成长,繁荣;大量繁殖 dismiss [dɪsˈmɪs] vt. 驳回,不予理会,驳斥 scaremongering [ˈskeəmʌŋɡərɪŋ] n. 危言耸听,制造恐慌 🗒️翻译和pdf见公众号【琐简英语】,回复1可加入【打卡交流群】

1分钟
1k+
1周前
英文名著分集阅读 柯南·道尔《福尔摩斯与赛马》part2

英文名著分集阅读 柯南·道尔《福尔摩斯与赛马》part2

高效磨耳朵 | 最好的英语听力资源

Sherlock Holmes and the Sport of Kings by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle 单词提示 1.curry 咖喱 2.stick 手杖 3.opium 鸦片 原文 Chapter 2: Monday night at King's Pyland Notes by Inspector Gregory, after talking to Edith Baxter, Ned Hunter, Mrs. John Straker and Mr. Fitzroy Simpson. On Monday evening, Straker locked the stables at nine o'clock the usual time. Two of the boys then walked up to the trainer's house for their dinner. But the third boy, Ned Hunter, stayed in the stables to watch the horses. At five past nine, the Strakers' servant, a girl called Edith Baxter, carried Ned Hunter's dinner down to the stables. The dinner that night was a hot meat curry. Edith was nearly at the stables, when a man called out to her. He came up to her, and she saw a tall man in a gray suit and a hat, and a red and black scarf. He carried a big walking stick, and Edith felt afraid of him. "Where am I?" the man asked, "What is this place?" "This is King's Pyland, training stables." she said. "Good," said the man, "Now, a stable boy sleeps here every night, is that right? And I think you're taking his dinner to him now." He took an envelope out of his pocket. "Please give the boy this and you can have some money for a beautiful new dress." Edith did not take the envelope. She ran past the man to the stables and up to a small open window. She always put the boy's dinner through this window, and Ned Hunter was there,ready to take it. "Oh, Ned!" Edith cried, but before she could say any more, the stranger came up behind her. "Good evening," he said through the window to the boy, "I want to talk to you." "Who are you, what do you want?" Ned Hunter said. "I want to make you rich, boy," the stranger said, "You help me and I help you. You have two horses in for the Wessex Cup- silver Blaze and Bayard. I hear that Bayard is the better horse and that you stable boys are putting your bets on him to win, am I right?" "I'm not saying anything," cried Ned Hunter, "We don't talk about our horses at King's Pyland. So get out, I'm getting the dog now." Ned ran across the stables to get the dog, and Edith began to run back to the house. But she looked back after about 30 meters and saw the man at the little window with his head and one arm inside the room. Edith ran on, and a minute later, Ned came out of the building and locked the door behind him. He ran all-round the stables with the dog, but the man was gone. Ned Hunter told the trainer and the other boys about the stranger, but no one saw him again. The next thing happened at one o'clock in the morning, when John Straker got out of bed. "What's the matter," said his wife, "Where are you going?" "To the stables," Straker said, "I can't stop thinking about that stranger, I just want to have a look around." "But it's raining, wait until the rain stops." she said. "No,no," Straker said, "I want to go now." He left the house and Mrs. Straker went back to sleep. At seven in the morning, she woke up, but her husband was not there. She quickly got up, called the servant-Edith, and they ran down to the stables. They found the stables unlocked, Straker was not there. And inside on a chair, Ned Hunter slept like a dead man. Silver Blaze was gone and his stable door was open. They called the other two boys from the room over the stables. They were good sleepers and heard nothing in the night. Nobody could wake Ned Hunter, so the two women and the boys ran out to look for the trainer and the horse. Five hundred from the stables, they saw Straker's coat on a small tree. Down the hill, just past the tree, they found the trainer. He was dead. There was a long cut in his leg, and his head was broken in three places. In his right hand, he had a small knife with blood all over it. And in his left hand, he had a red and black scarf. Edith Baxter knew the scarf at once, and later so did Ned Hunter. "It's the strangest scarf," he told us, "When I went to get the dog, that stranger was still at the stable window. He put something in my meat curry to make me sleep, I know he did.Edith saw him with his arm through the window." Ned Hunter was right about his meat curry. There were some of his dinner left, and we found a lot of opium in it, that's why Ned slept like a dead man. What about the horse? We found his tracks in the mud next to Straker's dead body. But what happened then? Someone hit streak on the head and killed him. Did that person take the horse away? Did the horse run away? Everybody on Dartmoor is looking for Silver Blaze, but there is no news of him. When I began work on the case on Tuesday, we looked for the stranger. He was in Tavistock and we found him easily. His name is Fitzroy Simpson, he lives mostly in London and makes his money at the races taking bets. We looked in his betting book and found a number of big bets, £5000 against the favorite for the Wessex Cup. These were his answers to my questions. "Why did you come down to Dartmoor?" "I'm a betting man, Inspector. I need to know about the horses for the Wessex Cupsilver blaze, Bayard, and Desborough-the horse at Silas Brown's stables. He is the second favorite for the race, you see." "Did you go to the King's Pyland stables late on Monday evening?" "Yes,I did. I just wanted to ask the stable boys some questions; they know the horses better than anyone." "And is this your scarf?" "Yes,yes, it is." "And how did it get into the dead man's hand? Mr. Simpson, can you tell us that?" "I don't know, Inspector, I don't know, I never saw the man. I lost my scarf in the dark. It wasn't me, Inspector, it wasn't me." We asked many more questions, but Fitzroy Simpson did not change his story. He was out at King's Pyland that night, his suit was still wet from the rain, and his big walking stick could break a man's head open, but there were no cuts on his body. So where did the blood on Straker's knife come from? And where is the horse? 翻译 第二章:周一晚上的金斯皮兰 格雷戈里巡官与伊道丝·巴克斯特、内德·亨特、约翰·斯特雷克夫人以及菲茨罗伊·辛普森先生谈话以后的记录。 星期一晚上,斯特雷克跟平常一样9点就锁了马厩。然后有两个小马倌走到驯马师家里吃晚餐,而第三个小马倌内德·亨特留在马厩照看马匹。 9点5分,斯特雷克的佣人,一个名叫伊迪丝·巴克斯特的女孩子把内德·亨特的晚餐送到马厩。 那天晚上的晚餐是热的咖哩烧肉。 伊迪丝快到马厩的时候,一个人向她打招呼。 他走近她,伊迪丝看见一个高个子男人,穿着一件灰色外套,戴着帽子,围着一条黑红相间的围巾,手里拿着一根粗大的手杖。 伊迪丝觉得有点儿害怕。 "我这是在哪儿?"那个人问道,"这是什么地方?" "这是金斯皮兰的训练马厩。"伊迪丝回答道。 "太好了!"那个人说。"那么,一个小马倌每天晚上睡在这儿--对吗?我猜你这是要去给他送晚餐吧。" 他从口袋里掏出一个信封。"请把这个交给那个男孩儿,你就可以得到一笔钱买身漂亮衣服了。" 伊迪丝没拿那个信封。 她从那个人身旁跑过去,跑到马厩那儿的一扇开着的小窗前。 她一般都从这扇窗户将小马倌的晚餐递进去,内德·亨特已经在那儿准备取饭了。 "噢,内德!"伊迪丝叫道,但她还没来得及说别的,那个陌生人已经来到了她身后。 "晚上好,"他隔着窗户对那个男孩说,"我想跟你谈谈。" "你是谁?你想干什么?"内德·亨特说。 "我想让你发财,孩子,"那个陌生人说,"你要是帮我,我就会帮你。你们有两匹马要参加韦塞克斯杯--'银光'和贝亚德。我听说贝亚德更好,你们这帮小马倌都在它身上下了注。对吗?" "我不会透露任何事!"内德·亨特叫道,"我们不会在金斯皮兰谈论自己的马,快走开!我要放狗了!" 内德穿过马厩去牵狗,伊迪丝开始回头往房子里跑。 但她跑了大约30米后,回头看见那个人站在那扇小窗子边,头和一只胳膊伸进了房间里。 伊迪丝继续往回跑,很快内德就出来了,顺手锁了门。 他带着狗绕马厩跑了一圈,但那个人已经不见了。 内德·亨特跟驯马师和其他的马倌说了那个陌生人的事,但再没人看到那个人。 第二件事发生在凌晨1点。约翰·斯特雷克从床上爬了起来。 "怎么了?"他妻子说,"你要去哪儿?" "去马厩看看,"斯特雷克说,"我老想着那个陌生人。我想去看看。" "可天在下雨呢。等雨停了再去吧。"她说。 "不,不,"斯特雷克说,"我就想现在去。" 他离开了房子,斯特雷克夫人接着睡觉。 早上7点,她醒了过来,但她丈夫不在。 她马上起床,叫来了佣人伊迪丝,一起往马厩跑去。 她们发现马厩没锁。 斯特雷克不在,内德·亨特在里边一张椅子上睡得跟死人一样。 "银光"也不见了,它所在的马厩开着门。 她们叫醒了睡在马厩顶上房间里的另外两个小马倌。 他俩都睡得很死,没听见夜里有任何动静。 没人能叫醒内德·亨特,于是那两个女人和两个小马倌跑出去找驯马师和那匹马。 在离马厩500米的地方,他们看见斯特雷克的外套挂在一棵小树上。 就在树边的山脚下,他们找到了驯马师。他死了。 他腿上有一道长长的伤口,脑袋有三处破了。 他右手拿着一把小刀,上面满是血,左手拽着一条黑红相间的围巾。 伊迪丝·巴克斯特马上就认出了那条围巾,后来,内德·亨德也认出来了。 "是那个陌生人的围巾,"他告诉我们,"我去牵狗的时候,那个人还在马厩的窗户边。他放了什么东西在我的咖哩烧肉里,让我昏昏入睡--我知道一定是他。伊迪丝看见他了,他的手伸进了窗户里。" 内德·亨特关于他的咖哩烧肉的判断是对的。 他的晚餐还剩下一点儿,我们在里边发现大量的鸦片。 这就是内德睡得那么死的原因。 那匹马呢? 我们在泥地里发现了它的脚印,就在斯特雷克的尸体旁边。 但是随后发生了什么事? 有人打中了斯特雷克的头,杀死了他。 那个人把马带走了吗?还是马自己跑了? 达特穆尔的每个人都在找"银光",但没有关于它的任何消息。 星期二我开始调查这个案子,我们就着手寻找那个陌生人。 他在塔维斯托克,我们轻而易举地找到了他。 他名叫菲茨罗伊·辛普森。他大部分时间住在伦敦,靠在赛马中赌马赚钱。 我们查看了他的赌金簿,发现他在韦塞克斯杯上下了重注--5000英镑--买"银光"输。 以下是他回答我的问题的记录。 "你为什么去达特穆尔?" "巡官,我是个赌徒。我得了解参加韦塞克斯杯的马--'银光'、贝亚德,还有德斯伯勒——赛拉斯·布朗家的马。你知道,那是这次比赛的第二大热门。" "星期一晚上你是不是去了金斯皮兰的马厩?" "对。我只想向着马厩的马倌打听点儿事情。他们比任何人都了解马的状况。" "这是你的围巾吗?" "对......是我的。" "那它是怎么到被害人的手里的,辛普森先生?你能向我们解释一下吗?" "我不知道,巡官,我不知道!我从来没见过那个人,那天夜里我的围巾丢了。不是我干的,巡官,不是我!" 我们还问了很多问题,但菲茨罗伊·辛普森坚持他的说法。他那天晚上确实在金斯皮兰,他的外套淋了雨,还是湿的,他那条粗大的手杖足以打破人的脑袋。但他身上没有伤口,那斯特雷克手里那把刀上的血迹又是从哪儿来的呢? 还有,那匹马哪儿去了?

11分钟
4k+
1周前
她研社|咖啡豆:辣妹风女装 BM 曾被大量吐槽,为什么国产「BM 学徒」越来越多?

她研社|咖啡豆:辣妹风女装 BM 曾被大量吐槽,为什么国产「BM 学徒」越来越多?

声动早咖啡

本周节目由「专研高品质舒适感的她研社」冠名播出,她研社,舒适刚刚好。 她研社均衡力卫生巾采用弱酸面层设计,pH 值接近皮肤本身的环境,有效抑制有害菌维持酸碱平衡,干爽不漏不敏痒。节目 shownotes 里有她研社的产品链接,有需要的听友,可以上天猫她研社旗舰店,现在下单还能享受限时优惠。参与评论区互动,还有机会抽取她研社均衡力礼包! 感谢图拉斯对本期咖啡豆的支持!图拉斯支点壳 O3AirBios,以自然有机为灵感,生长出模拟自然曲线的受力结构,协同仿生气囊瞬时化解冲击,提升支点壳防护专业性。这套有机系统让各个结构相互连接共同承力,在轻盈之中形成完整防护。 恭喜本期的咖啡豆「单反脚架」获得由图拉斯送出的「O3AirBios 支点壳」。希望在图拉斯的陪伴下,去发现记录有趣的商业现象。 W.Management、Basement FG、Weekend Hub 等多个本土女装店,都能称得上是 Brandy Melville(BM)品牌的学徒。几百平方米的大店里,陈列的衣服会像是放在仓库里面一样堆叠起来。不过,36 氪 指出,这些国内的辣妹风品牌,扩张速度要比 BM 快得多。这些「国产 BM」为什么能够迅速铺开门店开进商场呢?本期的咖啡豆回复就与之相关 [05:03]。你现在更多在线上还是线下买衣服呢?社交媒体上的热度,会让你专门去寻找一家线下门店吗?在评论区和我们一起聊聊吧。 本期还有关于航空公司、Meta、快手和雀巢的新动态 [01:25],欢迎收听! 主播 Mengyi 幕后制作 监制:Zelin、Stella 实习研究员:雷普利 运营:George 声音设计:沁茗 封面设计:饭团 营销内容策划:beibei 商业内容策划:茹雪、幸倍 声动活泼商业化小队:新新、秋杰、琳琳、迪卡 商务合作:声动早咖啡等节目商业合作持续招募中,点击链接直达 声动商务会客厅,或者发送邮件至 [email protected] 联系我们; 加入我们:声动活泼目前开放内容监制、商业发展等全职岗位,还在招聘内容实习生等,工作地点北京东城区,详细岗位信息与申请方式,请点击链接; 听众投稿:如果你了解身边日常现象的背后原因,欢迎投稿,你的发现可能出现在节目中。 「用声音碰撞世界」,声动活泼致力于为人们提供源源不断的思考养料。 * 我们还有这些播客:声东击西、What's Next|科技早知道、商业WHY酱、跳进兔子洞&跳进兔子洞第三季、吃喝玩乐了不起、不止金钱、泡腾 VC、反潮流俱乐部 * 如果你喜欢我们的节目,欢迎打赏支持,或把我们的节目推荐给朋友 * 本节目音频内容及文字版权归声动活泼所有,未经授权不得用于 AI 模型训练等用途

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