上周四拜登和特朗普进行了首次总统辩论。拜登的表现引发选民对其连任身心状况的担忧，观众多认为特朗普获胜或拜登落败。此后特朗普在民调中似有优势，部分民调显示其领先，但并非所有民调都如此。一些民调对拜登不利，有关他可能退选的讨论增多。民调机构测试了选民对民主党的其他潜在人选的看法。最初的民调变动未显著影响选举预测，但州级民调中特朗普的更多优势可能会影响。由于选民两极分化，未来几周大幅民调变化不太可能，但选民偏好的小变动仍可能影响结果，关注州级民调至关重要。

英语知识点：

• 词汇：“falsehood”（谎言；虚假）
  
  “aftermath”（后果；余波）
  
  “polarized”（两极分化的）
  
  “alternatives”（替代品；可供选择的事物）
  
  “forecast”（预测；预报）
  
  


• 短语：“take place”（发生；举行）
  
  “raise concerns”（引起关注；引发担忧）
  
  “gain some ground”（取得一些进展；获得优势）
  
  “in collaboration with”（与......合作）
  
  “call for”（呼吁；要求）
  
  “trail behind”（落后于）
  
  


• 句式：“Despite...,...”（尽管......，......）
  
  “compared to”（与......相比）
  
  “Not all...,...”（并非所有......，......）
  
  例如：Despite Trump's repeated falsehoods during the debate, viewers largely perceived him as the winner.（尽管特朗普在辩论中多次说谎，但观众大多认为他是赢家。）
  
  In 538's national polling average, Trump now leads by 1.4 percentage points over Biden, compared to a tie on the day of the debate.（在 538 的全国民调平均值中，特朗普现在领先拜登 1.4 个百分点，而在辩论当天两者持平。）
  
  Not all polls indicate Trump's gain. （并非所有的民意调查都表明特朗普有所收获。）

• 原文：The first presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump took place last Thursday. Biden's performance on the stage raised concerns among voters about his mental and physical fitness for another presidential term. Despite Trump's repeated falsehoods during the debate, viewers largely perceived him as the winner or at least saw Biden as the loser.In the aftermath, Trump seems to have gained some ground in the polls. In 538's national polling average, Trump now leads by 1.4 percentage points over Biden, compared to a tie on the day of the debate.Many initial post-debate polls show Trump in a stronger position. For example, Data for Progress found Trump ahead of Biden after the debate, while Suffolk University/USA Today also reported a shift in Trump's favor. Leger, in collaboration with the New York Post, saw a dramatic change from before the debate.Not all polls indicate Trump's gain. Some, like Morning Consult and CNN/SSRS, show little or no change. We're still awaiting results from other prominent pollsters.Some post-debate surveys present negative data for Biden. Fewer voters rate his mental and physical fitness positively. Discussions about Biden potentially dropping out have increased, with Texas Rep. Lloyd Doggett being the first Democratic congressman to call for it.Pollsters have tested voters' views on potential Democratic alternatives. Data for Progress found all alternatives polling similarly to Biden, while CNN/SSRS showed Harris trailing Trump.The initial post-debate poll movement hasn't significantly affected 538's presidential election forecast, which still indicates a close race. However, more movement in Trump's favor in state-level polls could impact the forecast.Despite Biden's challenges, large polling changes in the next few weeks are unlikely due to a highly polarized electorate. But even small shifts in voters' preferences can have a significant impact in highly-competitive presidential elections, as seen in recent years and in the Electoral College system. Close attention to state-level polling is crucial.