010 | 那些我们在2023年失去的精英大学校长们 2023: College Presidents Under Fire

【聊了什么】 从斯坦佛到哈佛,美国精英大学的校长们先后历劫。2023年10月7日以色列哈马斯冲突升级之后,中东问题在美国精英高校成为争议焦点,各大校长们也被卷入风波。为什么有的校长因此下台,还有一些校长却得以“幸存”? 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:01 共和党初选的最新进展和分析 05:30 利益冲突声明 07:03 斯坦福大学前校长Marc Tessier-Lavigne(MTL)的学术造假问题及其辞职 14:18 学生记者的胜利? 16:43 巴以冲突在美国精英大学成为争议焦点 21:15 听证会上的“明星”议员Elise Stefanik 24:56 国会听证会为何变成了马戏团表演 28:15 听证会上发生了什么?为什么校长们给出如此糟糕的回答 40:03 大学校长是都应该在争议政治话题上站队 45:30 为什么美国右翼对美国精英高校充满敌意 59:10 听证会后第一个下台的宾大校长Liz Magill 1:02:30 哈佛校长的“抄袭”风波 1:17:25 “幸存”的MIT校长和文理科在巴以冲突上的分歧 1:24:36 金融大佬Bill Ackman的闹剧 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Lokin:美国法学院学生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈:美国政治经济学PhD,政治行为研究者 本期节目的制作人是小华和Lokin,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是木七果。美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 From Stanford to Harvard, leaders of America's elite universities have faced a multitude of challenges in 2023. Following the Israel-Hamas conflict that intensified on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has emerged as a contentious issue within these top institutions, propelling their presidents into the heart of the storm. Amidst the controversy, why have some presidents resigned while others have seemingly managed to "survive"? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:01 Latest updates and analysis on the Republican primaries 05:30 Conflict of interest statement 07:03 Academic misconduct and resignation of Marc Tessier-Lavigne, ex-president of Stanford 14:18 A win for student journalists? 16:43 The Israeli-Hamas war: a contentious issue in US elite universities 21:15 Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in the spotlight at the hearing 24:56 Why congressional hearings have turned into a spectacle 28:15 What went wrong at the hearing? Poor responses from university presidents 40:03 Should university leaders take a stand on controversial political topics? 45:30 Why the American right is hostile towards elite universities 59:10 The first resignation post-hearing: Liz Magill, former president of Penn 1:02:30 Plagiarism scandal involving the former president of Harvard 1:17:25 The "surviving" MIT president 1:24:36 - The saga of financial mogul Bill Ackman 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher This episode is produced by Xiaohua and Lokin, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast. 【拓展链接】 Why Some Academics Are Reluctant to Call Claudine Gay a Plagiarist The Invention of Elise Stefanik Theo Baker Meet the student who helped boot the president of Stanford Is Claudine Gay a Plagiarist? 'This is Definitely Plagiarism': Harvard University President Claudine Gay Copied Entire Paragraphs From Others’ Academic Work and Claimed Them as Her Own How We Squeezed Harvard to Push Claudine Gay Out Bill Ackman's celebrity academic wife Neri Oxman's dissertation is marred by plagiarism Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

87分钟
4k+
1年前

009 | 2024年美国大选艾奥瓦冷清开场 Review of the Iowa Caucus

【聊了什么】 2024年美国大选周期在冰冷的艾奥瓦州冷清开场,特朗普以压倒性优势轻松获胜。共和党初选距离变成垃圾时间可能仅剩一步之遥? 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:47 艾奥瓦党团会议结果回顾 05:11 艾奥瓦州初选的历史和特殊性 12:00 特朗普、德桑蒂斯、黑莉和拉瓦斯瓦米在艾奥瓦的策略 23:55 展望新罕布什尔州初选 34:50 特朗普对共和党的绝对控制力 45:35 艾奥瓦州初选的赢家除了特朗普还有民调 更正: 39:05 Bob Dole在艾奥瓦大胜时间应该为1988年 42:00 出口民调中认为和自己“share the same value”最重要的选民中特朗普赢了40% 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 本期节目的制作人是小华,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是木七果。 美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客,更多关于播客厂牌百花的信息请点击这里。 【 What We Talked About】 The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election cycle kicks off in the frosty backdrop of Iowa. Donald Trump secures the victory effortlessly with a significant margin. Is the Republican primary on the brink of becoming a mere formality? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:47 Review of the Iowa caucus results 05:11 Why is Iowa so unique? Why is it first? 12:00 Strategies of Trump, DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy in Iowa 23:55 Looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary 34:50 Trump's absolute control over the Republican Party 45:35 Winners of the Iowa Primaries: Trump and the polls 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast. 【拓展链接】 Iowa Poll: Nikki Haley overtakes Ron DeSantis; Donald Trump leads big (desmoinesregister.com) Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

49分钟
4k+
1年前

008 | 席卷美国的罢工潮 2023: The Year of Labor Strikes

从好莱坞到锈带,从演员到蓝领汽车工人,罢工潮席卷全美各地。 【聊了什么】 2023年见证了美国劳工运动的一次新高潮。从好莱坞的编剧和演员工会,到三大汽车厂的蓝领工人,全美各地的工人们联合起来,通过罢工争取到了一系列创纪录的合同。在通胀导致生活成本飙升的背景下,这些努力为工人阶级带来了更高的薪酬,从资方手中争取到了更多的利润分享。随着几场重要的罢工运动接近尾声,我们邀请到了一位亲身参与工人运动的嘉宾,深入探讨这场罢工潮的前因后果及其深远影响。 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:46 美国汽车工人联合会(UAW)组成的多样化 04:47 汽车工人罢工发起的流程和工人的诉求 10:16 UAW的新领导层和改革运动 16:36 UAWD带来的新气象 23:58 拜登和特朗普和工会的关系 30:54 资方如何打压工会和劳工运动 34:18 律师和工会的关系 43:50 “精英”行业为什么没有工会 46:43 就业法和劳工法之间的张力 51:15 Janus案判决对工会的影响 57:10 工会对工人意味着什么 1:00:59 什么样的工人需要工会 1:05:45 作为“精英”的藤校学生为什么要向蓝领工人学习 1:12:29 为什么工人需要工会 1:18:55 工会领导人和基层之间的关系和工会组成的多元化 1:22:16 工会和移民以及国际学生的关系 1:28:05 美国工会的未来会更好吗? 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 Lokin:美国法学院学生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 张跃然:社会学博士在读,UAW工会成员 本期节目由talich和小华制作,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是小华。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 In 2023, the American labor movement reached a new peak. From the writers and actors in Hollywood to the blue-collar workers of the Big Three automakers, workers across the U.S. united, securing a series of unparalleled contracts through strikes. These efforts led to increased wages for the working class and workers gaining a greater share of profits from employers amid rising living costs driven by high inflation. As several significant strikes draw to a close, we invited a guest who is actively involved in the labor movement to explore with us the origins, outcomes, and enduring effects of these strikes. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:46 - Evolution of the United Auto Workers (UAW) 04:47 - Behind the scenes: auto workers' strikes and their demands 10:16 - Leadership and reform in the UAW 16:36 - UAWD's new perspectives 23:58 - Biden and Trump's interactions with the unions 30:54 - Employers' tactics against unions and labor movements 34:18 - Examining the union-lawyer relationship 43:50 - Absence of unions in 'elite' industries (blue collar vs. white collar) 46:43 - Dynamics between employment and labor laws 51:15 - Impact of the Janus case decision on unions 57:10 - What unions mean to workers 1:00:59 - Types of workers who need unions 1:05:45 - Why Ivy League students should learn from blue-collar workers 1:12:29 - Importance of unions for workers 1:18:55 - Dynamics between union leaders and members, and the diversification of union membership 1:22:16 - Unions, immigrants, and international students 1:28:05 - Future of America's labor movement 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer Yueran Zhang: Ph.D. candidate in Sociology, member of the UAW This episode is produced by Talich and Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xiao Hua. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 美国汽车工人大罢工的胜利:困境中的工会,如何取得历史性的成功? 《十三月评论》频道 vol.44 | 我在美国组织罢工——看见集体行动的力量与困境 - 打工谈 How the Yale Unions Took Over New Haven | The New Yorker Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

91分钟
5k+
1年前

007 | 保护堕胎权能帮到拜登么? Abortion rights win big in 2023 elections. Can it help Biden win too?

【聊了什么】 虽然总统拜登的支持率低迷,民主党却在刚刚结束的迷你中期选举中取得了比民调药好得多的结果。堕胎权作为焦点议题起到了怎样的作用,又对明年大选会有什么样的影响?我们来讨论一下! 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 * 00:40 什么是迷你中期选举? * 01:20 2023 年迷你中期选举的主要结果 * 04:04 为什么会有迷你中期选举? * 08:24 俄亥俄堕胎权入宪法公投 * 12:30 堕胎权之争的前景 * 25:30 支持大麻合法化的人和支持堕胎权的人并不很重合 * 26:11 肯塔基州州长连任,堕胎权之争的作用 * 29:21 堕胎权之争共和党为什么陷入被动? * 31:54 弗吉尼亚州议会选举和文化战争 * 38:11 选民结构的变化对竞选的影响 * 44:15 拜登的民调表现为什么这么差? * 49:33 拜登的年龄问题被夸大了,还是特朗普的年龄问题被低估了? * 52:43 通涨/经济现状对选举的影响 * 56:15 今年迷你中期选举和明年大选的关系 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: * Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 * 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 * Lokin:美国法学院学生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 本期节目由Talich制作,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是Talich。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Yes. 2023 is also an election year. Though Biden is not doing so well in the latest polls, Democrats have exceeded expectations in the past off-year elections. We discuss results of some of the high-profile races. How did abortion rights play into the results? How will the issue affect the general elections next year? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 * 00:40 What is a mini-midterm election? * 01:20 Main outcome of 2023 mini-midterm election * 4:04 Why did some states adopt mini-midterm elections? * 8:24 Ohio’s initiative on abortion rights * 12:30 The future of political fights on abortion rights * 25:30 Pro-marijuana legalization and pro-abortion rights voters don’t exactly overlap * 26:11 Kentucky governor's successful re-election and abortion rights in the state * 29:21 Why is the Republican party playing defense when it comes to abortion rights * 31:54 Virginia state legislature elections and the culture wars * 38:11 How voter demographic changes affect elections * 44:15 Why is Biden doing so badly in the polls? * 49:33 Has Biden's age issue been exaggerated, or has Trump's age issue been underestimated? * 52:43 The impact of inflation/economic situations on elections * 56:15 What does the mini-midterm say about next year’s general election? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer This episode is produced by Talich, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Talich. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

58分钟
4k+
1年前

006 | 迈克・约翰逊都能当议长了,他行吗? The Ascension of Mike Johnson

【聊了什么】 共和党选出了新议长:迈克・约翰逊。迈克・约翰逊是谁?他为什么能当上议长?他当议长面临什么样的挑战?他会怎样面对?这期播客我们从选议长一路讨论到了怎么当议长。 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:05 回顾第一轮推选议长的过程(兼对上上次播客里的预测的回顾) 03:08 乔丹是怎么输的 08:26 第二轮选举,约翰逊怎么赢的 11:11 约翰逊的资历和他胜选和关系 18:11 约翰逊曾担任主席的学习委员会是怎么回事 23:22 当议长需要什么技能和人脉 28:23 临时拨款协议对约翰逊的挑战 30:49 约翰逊如何解决党内关于堕胎的矛盾 40:43 约翰逊会如何解决两党关于军援/边境安全的拨款问题 44:58 麦康奈尔、拜登、和共和党保守派在外交问题上的矛盾 49:00 议长最重要的权力:议程设置 50:54 约翰逊的蜜月期会有多长 52:18 约翰逊的个人形像对共和党的选情有多重要 55:50 特朗普为什么可以频频踩福音派的红线还不受惩罚 01:00:34 接下来两周的看点 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 寄馀生:比较政治爱好者 本期节目由Talich制作,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是Talich。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 If the ascension of Mike Johnson to the office of speaker of the House proves one thing, it’s that “keeping a low profile and biding your time” actually works. So who is Mike Johnson? What challenges does he face as the new speaker? How would he go about it? In this episode, we talk about the ins and outs of what it takes to become speaker of the House. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:05 Overview of what happened in the previous rounds of selection (and to see how right or wrong our predictions in the previous episode turned out to be) 03:08 How Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan lost 08:26 How did Johnson win the second round of the election? 11:11 Johnson’s credentials, his electoral success and connections 18:11 What happened to the Republican Study Committee Johnson once chaired? 23:22 What skills and connections are needed to be the speaker? 28:23 One of Johnson’s first tests as speaker: Continuing Resolution(CR) 30:49 How will Johnson resolve the conflict within the Republican party over abortion policy? 40:43 How would Johnson resolve the bipartisan funding issue for military aid/border security? 44:58 Conflicts between McConnell, Biden, and Republican conservatives on foreign affairs issues 49:00 The speaker’s most important power: agenda setting 50:54 How long will Johnson’s “honeymoon phase” be? 52:18 How important is Johnson’s personal branding to GOP’s upcoming elections? 55:50 Why Trump can repeatedly cross Evangelical’s red lines with impunity 01:00:34 What to watch for in the next two weeks 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast This episode is produced by Talich, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Talich. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

65分钟
4k+
1年前

005 | 变革中的美国媒体 The Shifting American Media Landscape

【聊了什么】 默多克的退休,成为了电视媒体时代落幕的又一个注脚。我们从默多克聊起,聊到了不同时代、不同派别的美国媒体在政治和选举中扮演的角色。2024年和未来,美国政客们又会如何利用TikTok和其它新兴媒体平台? 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 2:23 退而不休的默多克和家族的“继承之战” 10:20 福克斯新闻意识形态和美国电视新闻节目形态的演化 22:06 政治脱口秀的崛起 29:25 CNN的崛起和变化 42:29 MSNBC的崛起和变化 54:26 媒体和技术变革对美国政治和传播的影响 1:05:05 总统的诞生不仅要靠个人努力,也要看历史进程 1:19:24 TikTok和其它新兴媒体平台会如何影响2024年大选 1:28:19 “网红”当上总统还要多久? 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 杨一:旅英媒体人 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 本期节目由小华制作,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是Xavier。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Rupert Murdoch's retirement is just the latest footnote to the end of the television era. We started this episode talking about Murdoch’s outsized influence on American politics, and how mass media have shaped politics and elections in different generations and political factions. How will politicians use TikTok and other emerging media platforms in 2024 and in the future? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 2:23 Murdoch may be retired, but he’s not resting. What comes next in this real-life “Succession” show? 10:20 Fox News’s ideology and how American TV news programming evolved over the years 22:06 A uniquely American cultural product: late night political comedy 29:25 CNN’s meteoric rise and how it changed in recent years 42:29 MSNBC’s rise and its role in American politics 54:26 How technological developments in mass media affect American politics 1:05:05 How mass media made various previous presidents — timing matters 1:19:24 How will TikTok and other new social media platforms affect the upcoming 2024 election 1:28:19 How far are we from getting the first “influencer” president? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast Yang Yi: Journalist based in London 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xiao Hua. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 杨一的明信片 | Yang Yi | Substack 杨一的小红书 - 个人页 (xiaohongshu.com) 92岁默多克退休:传媒大亨与两个大国的纠葛|新闻实验室 001 | 「继承之战」 :无法背叛的父亲,和无法拯救的帝国 The War of "Succession" - 疲惫娇娃 CyberPink Inside Rupert Murdoch’s Succession Drama | Vanity Fair 最响亮的声音 (豆瓣) Inside the Meltdown at CNN - The Atlantic Crush On Obama - YouTube Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

91分钟
7k+
1年前

004 | 闹关门的美国政府和被赶下台的议长 The Looming Government Shutdown and McCarthy’s Ouster

美国政府关门危机暂时缓解,议长麦卡锡却成了美国史上第一位被赶下台的议长。 【聊了什么】 在短短几天时间内,美国政坛最大的危机从政府长期关门转变为议长凯文·麦卡锡被罢免。这两场危机折射出美国政治生态怎样的变化?陷入停摆的众议院将何去何从? 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:58 国会拨款程序如何让美国政府频频陷入关门危机 06:19 今年拨款案的核心矛盾 09:43 关门危机如何从两党矛盾演变成共和党内斗 23:47 “委员会中心主义” 25:37 两党的不对称极化和政府关门对民意的影响 39:35 麦卡锡的命运从2022中期选举就注定了 49:55 麦卡锡和极右翼议员的恩恩怨怨 54:43 麦卡锡去意已决? 01:11:43 未来议长选举的分析和预测 01:24:17 弱势议长的未来 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 曹起曈:美国政治经济学PhD,政治行为研究者 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 寄馀生:比较政治爱好者 本期节目由小华制作,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是小华。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Within just a few days, the biggest crisis in U.S. politics shifted from a potential prolonged government shutdown to the ousting of Speaker Kevin McCarthy. What do these two crises reveal about the changes in the American political landscape? And what lies ahead for the gridlocked House of Representatives? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:58 How the congressional appropriation process leads to the frequent shutdown crisis of the U.S. Government 06:19 The focus of this year's appropriation bills 09:43 How the shutdown crisis evolved from a conflict between the two parties to infighting within the Republican Party 23:47 “Committee autonomy” 25:37 Asymmetric polarization and how public opinion reacts to government shutdowns 39:35 Speaker McCarthy's fate was sealed in the 2022 midterm elections 49:55 The love-hate affair between McCarthy and far-right Republicans 54:43 Had McCarthy already made up his mind to leave? 01:11:43 Analysis and predictions for the incoming speaker elections 01:24:17 The future of a weak speakership 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xiao Hua. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 从政府关门危机到议长被罢免:美国国会陷入了怎样的失灵状况?|端传媒 Inside McCarthy’s Shutdown Turnabout That Left His Speakership at Risk - The New York Times Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

92分钟
6k+
1年前

003 | 四审特朗普 Trump's Four Indictments, Explained

美国前总统特朗普面临四起刑事起诉,他的麻烦有多大? 【聊了什么】 美国前总统特朗普面临四场刑事起诉 —— 纽约封口费案、联邦机密文件案、联邦干涉选举案、乔治亚干涉选举案。我们对这四起案件的时间线、指控、影响进行了详细的盘点和分析,并讨论了这些案件对2024年大选的影响。 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴 Timeline】 01:00 对四场刑事起诉的初印象 07:53 纽约封口费案 26:31 联邦机密文件案 49:19 联邦干涉选举案 1:12:08 乔治亚干涉选举案 1:20:10 四场刑事起诉的反应和影响 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Lokin:美国法学院学生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 曹起曈:美国政治经济学PhD,政治行为研究者。 游天龙:《选·美》栏目创始人之一,美国政治的资深门外汉。 小华:媒体人,美政观察者。 本期节目由小华制作,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是大羊羊。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Donald Trump, the first ever president (former or current) in U.S. history to be charged with criminal activity, is facing four indictments – the New York State case on hush money payment, a federal case on classified documents, a federal case on election interference, and the Georgia State’s case on election interference. We went over each of the indictments in detail, offering in-depth analysis of the timeline, charges, and implications of these four indictments. Tune in to this episode as we discuss their potential impact on the 2024 elections and find out why this matters to you. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:00 Initial impressions of the four indictments against Trump 07:53 The New York State hush money case 26:31 The federal confidential files case 49:19 The federal election interference case 1:12:08 The Georgia State election interference case 1:20:10 The impact of the four indictments on the upcoming election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 游天龙 (Tinalong You): Co-founder of iAmElection, seasoned outside observer of American politics 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is 大羊羊. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 Trump indictment related to hush money payment Trump indictment related to classified documents Trump indictment related to election interference Trump and allies Georgia Indictment talich(华建平):认识论决定了你我心中的世界 - 116 - 关雅荻·开放对话 Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

97分钟
6k+
1年前

002 | “非主流候选人”崛起和反建制潮流

【聊了什么】 从“大放异彩”的少数族裔候选人Vivek Ramaswamy,到肯尼迪家族的“局外人” RFK Jr.,再到更早的杨安泽,特朗普时代后,没有担任过公职的“非主流候选人”已经成为了两党初选中不可小觑的一股势力,他们为何能吸引到选民的支持,他们走多远? The post-Trump era political arena has seen no shortage of unconventional candidates: from rising superstar Vivek Ramaswamy, to the “outsider” of the famed Kennedy family — RFK Jr., to the UBI candidate Andrew Yang from the last election cycle. In this episode, we dive into their political journey — how did they rise to become formidable foes without ever having held public office? What makes them appealing to their supporters and how far can they go? Follow along as we watch their career with great interest. 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴】 01:33 首场共和党初选辩论回顾 04:44 “大放异彩”的Ramaswamy在辩论中遭受围攻,网络粉丝能帮他走多远 19:09 Ramaswamy的少数族裔身份和移民故事 26:13 肯尼迪家族的“局外人”RFK Jr.的崛起之路 29:35 从环保律师到阴谋论者,RFK Jr.的“反转”其实并不意外 35:18 从杨安泽到RFK Jr.,没有担任过公职的“非主流候选人”的初选天花板 46:37 特朗普如何打破初选天花板 51:51 两党选民的反建制情绪和战后社会文化思潮变化 58:21 “非主流候选人”退选后如何变现,他们都要去做播客了? 01:33 A look back at the first Republican primary debate in August 2023 04:44 Ramaswamy faced a barrage of attacks at the debate; how far can his online fan base take him? 19:09 Ramaswamy's background as a minority and an immigrant 26:13 The rise of Kennedy family's "outsider” — RFK Jr. 29:35 From environmental lawyer to conspiracy theorist, RFK Jr.'s pivot is not all that surprising 35:18 The primary ceiling for candidates who have never held public office 46:37 How Trump broke the so called “primary ceiling” 51:51 The anti-establishment sentiment among voters in both parties and the post-war shift of socio-cultural attitudes 58:21 How "non-mainstream candidates" cash in after bowing out of the race — are they all pivoting to podcasting? 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播: 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin:美国法学院学生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 The American Roulette is produced by Baihua Media. It is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang):American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 本期节目由小华制作,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是Xavier。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xavier. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接】 A Chaotic Display of Conservatism at the First Republican Debate | The New Yorker 【支持我们 Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡: * 众筹平台链接:www.patreon.com/americanroulette * 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: * Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette * Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

62分钟
3k+
1年前

001 | 四年一度的美国轮盘赌又开局了

【聊了什么 What We Talked About】 美国大选年又来了,我们又憋不住想聊美国政治了。四年一度的大选,如同一场轮盘赌,赌的是美国乃至全世界的命运。共和党初选在即,司法麻烦不断的特朗普依然在民调中遥遥领先,却选择跳过初选辩论;建制派精英和金主们试图带共和党走出特朗普的阴影,无奈选民并不买账;毫无政治经验的“网红”Ramaswamy异军突起,上升势头猛烈。2024年的大选,是不是最终又会是4年前特朗普vs.拜登的重演? With another U.S. election year just around the corner, we can’t help but take a deep dive into American politics once more. Every four years, it feels like we’re playing a game of roulette, betting on the fate of the United States and even the entire world. In this episode, we survey the current landscape ahead of the Republican primaries: Donald Trump — plagued by legal troubles — continues to lead in the polls. He chose to skip the very first primary debate. On the other hand, the GOP establishment elites and their donors are trying to lead the Republican Party out of Trump's shadow, but voters are not convinced. The politically inexperienced "internet celebrity" Vivek Ramaswamy has risen in popularity unexpectedly and gained a strong momentum. Will the 2024 election ultimately be a replay of four years ago, ending with Trump vs. Biden? Let’s find out. 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了! 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter,包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读,以及深度政治、政策分析,帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠,请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员:https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费(仅支持年付,我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置):https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持! 众筹平台链接: * Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette * 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] 【时间轴 Timeline】 * 3:43 2024年共和党初选的时间线和关键节点 * 11:13 共和党主要候选人盘点 * 14:38 力争上游的建制派精英—Ron DeSantis、Mike Pence、Tim Scott和Nikki Haley * 37:55 异军突起的局外人—Vivek Ramaswamy * 41:59 被起诉4次的特朗普民调不降反升,共和党选民为何对他不离不弃 * 50:44 跳过辩论的特朗普打的是什么算盘,其他候选人还有机会通过初选辩论翻盘吗? * 1:01:46 民主党一边拜登可以高枕无忧了吗?RFK Jr.的崛起和小儿子的司法危机会对拜登造成威胁吗? * 1:07:39 我们不负责任地预测了一下共和党初选以及2024年大选的最终结果 * 3:43 The 2024 Republican primary timeline and key milestones * 11:13 Overview of the major Republican candidates * 14:38 Establishment elites aiming high: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, and Nikki Haley * 37:55 Outsider rising unexpectedly — Vivek Ramaswamy * 41:59 Trump is facing four lawsuits, yet his poll numbers continue to rise. Why do Republican voters remain loyal to him? * 50:44 Why can Trump afford to skip the primary debates? Can other candidates get ahead through these debates? * 1:01:46 On the Democrats’ side, can Joe Biden afford to sit back and relax? Will the rise of RFK Jr. and his son Hunter Biden’s legal troubles pose a threat to Biden? * 1:07:39 We made some (irresponsible) predictions about the Republican primaries and the final outcome of the 2024 election 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播: * 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 * Lokin:美国法学院学生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 * 曹起曈:美国政治经济学PhD,政治行为研究者。 * 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts: * 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang):American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information * Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer * 曹起曈 (Qitong Cao): PhD in American political economy, political behavior researcher * 小华 (Xiao Hua): Media professional, political observer 【拓展链接 The Links】 黑马闪耀,群雄相争第二的诡异局面——简评共和党第一次初选辩论 【支持我们 Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡: * 众筹平台链接:www.patreon.com/americanroulette * 合作投稿邮箱:[email protected] If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: * Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette * Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

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1年前
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