威尼斯星空夜话第209期(20250310)-重要报告热词解码!对市场有何指引?

威尼斯星空夜话

A股市场近来波动,但情绪高涨,牛市是否已至?今晚聊聊重要报告如何解码市场指引。政府工作报告透露了啥信号?消费与科技成焦点,今年目标能否实现?通胀预期变化背后藏着什么投资机会?一起探讨经济复苏中的关键点。 02:09 A股市场上涨背后的预期转换与情绪提升:分析九月以来政策转向预期的影响 05:34 城镇新增就业超目标,居民收入实际增长51%:经济增长率达到百分之五左右 11:14 今年政府工作报告:赤字率提高到4%,财政政策力度加强,经济复苏信心加强。 16:51 消费政策引领经济发展,消费板块投资机会满满 22:31 政策不确定性与投资机会:总量政策与消费、科技的重要性分析 28:10 国内经济环境与货币政策:降息降准可能性加强 33:48 政府工作报告透露正面信息,A股估值将得到消化,信心倍增! 39:25 股市与债市表现差异:关注低空经济主题和消费电子行业的投资机会 45:02 CPI同比下降幅度明显,鲜菜价格下降是主因 50:38 煤炭加工价格同比下降24.7%:经济复苏中的成本下降现象 56:20 市场交易衰退预期,美国经济是否真的步入衰退?——股市震荡背后的逻辑分析 01:01:55 美国经济前景、通胀与股市不确定性:观察美股市场的角度

68分钟
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9个月前

经济学人|学校禁止使用智能手机能改善心理健康吗?

英音听力|BBC & 经济学人等

Do bans on smartphones in schools improve mental health? Science & Technology 科技板块 Well informed 消息灵通 Should schools ban smartphones? 学校是否应该禁止使用智能手机? Early evidence suggests such bans may do little to benefit people's mental health. 早期证据表明,此类禁令可能对改善人们的心理健康收效甚微。 France has not allowed smartphone use in primary or secondary schools since 2018, claiming that it would help children focus, reduce their social-media use and mitigate online bullying. The Netherlands initiated a similar ban in January 2024. Hungary followed suit later that year. Legislators in Britain are considering similar measures. The key question facing them is whether banning smartphones in schools offers any benefits to mental health. That there is a problem seems clear. In 2021 America's surgeon general compiled a report revealing that persistent feelings of hopelessness climbed by 40% among American high-school pupils between 2009 and 2019. The number who seriously considered killing themselves went up by 36%. What makes these findings all the worse is that 48% of mental-health problems (like depression and anxiety) that emerge during adolescence will plague people for the rest of their lives. It is tempting to connect these trends with the increased availability of smartphones, but establishing a causal connection is difficult. Part of the problem is that smartphones contain multitudes. Using a smartphone to solve crosswords or read the news may well have markedly different psychological effects from intensive social-media use. Children are no less varied. The brain undergoes profound changes during puberty, meaning that any research on the effects of smartphone use needs to consider the developmental age of the children being studied as well as their precise smartphone habits. No studies have got this specific. Those that have come close, however, reveal that unfettered access to social media on smartphones during puberty, especially at critical moments when the brain is changing, may cause problems. One study, led by Amy Orben at the University of Cambridge, asked 17,409 people between the ages of ten and 21 how satisfied they were with their lives and how much they used social media. The findings, reported in 2022 in Nature Communications, show that girls who increased their social media use over the course of a year were significantly less satisfied with their lives if the increase took place when they were between 11 and 13. Boys showed the same trend when increases took place when they were 14 or 15 years old. How much of this will change by banning phones in schools is unclear. In a paper published in the Lancet in February, Victoria Goodyear at the University of Birmingham compared the mental well-being of students in schools that implemented restrictive smartphone policies with those with relaxed policies. She also monitored overall screentime. Her results show that, though those who spent more time on a smartphone overall did have a decline in mental well-being, there was no difference between the two groups. She and her colleagues argue that setting up policies at schools alone is simply not enough. Researchers are trying to paint a complete picture with both hands tied behind their back. According to Dr Orben, social-media companies routinely refuse to give independent researchers access to detailed data on the behaviours of their users. This forces researchers to rely on less accurate proxy measures, like overall screentime. It also means that children playing educational games are being put in the same analytical bin as children who are on social media. A more nuanced picture of the effects of smartphones needs to be drawn. 词汇表 well informed [ɪnˈfɔː(r)md] 消息灵通的,见多识广的 mitigate [ˈmɪtɪɡeɪt] 减轻,缓和,缓解 online bullying [ˈbʊliɪŋ] 网络欺凌 Netherlands [ˈneðələndz] 荷兰(欧洲国家名) Hungary [ˈhʌŋɡəri] 匈牙利(欧洲国家名) follow suit [suːt] 跟着做,仿效,学样 legislator [ˈledʒɪsleɪtə(r)] 立法者,立法机关成员 surgeon general [ˈsɜː(r)dʒən ˈdʒenrəl] (美国)卫生局局长 compile [kəmˈpaɪl] 编纂,编写,编制 plague [pleɪɡ] 困扰,折磨,使苦恼 availability [əˌveɪləˈbɪləti] 可获得性,可用性 multitude [ˈmʌltɪtjuːd] 大量,许多;群众,人群 crossword [ˈkrɒswɜː(r)d] 填字游戏 markedly different [ˈmɑː(r)kɪdli] 明显不同,截然不同 intensive [ɪnˈtensɪv] 集中的,频繁的;强化的 varied [ˈveərid] 各种各样的,不同的;变化的 undergo [ˌʌndə(r)ˈɡəʊ] 经历,经受,遭受 puberty [ˈpjuːbəti] 青春期,发育期 precise [prɪˈsaɪs] 精确的,确切的;严谨的,细致的 unfettered access to [ʌnˈfetəd ˈækses] 无拘无束地使用,不受限制地访问 monitor [ˈmɒnɪtə(r)] 监测,监视,密切关注 overall screentime [ˈəʊvərɔːl ˈskriːn taɪm] 总体屏幕使用时间 paint a picture 描绘一幅图景;描述,展示 with both hands tied behind their back 束手束脚,处处受限的情况下 routinely [ruːˈtiːnli] 通常,常规地,例行公事地 proxy measure [ˈprɒksi] 替代指标,替代测量方法 educational game [ˌedʒuˈkeɪʃənl] 教育类游戏,益智游戏 analytical bin [ˌænəˈlɪtɪkl bɪn] 分析类别 nuanced [ˈnjuːɑːnst] 微妙的,有细微差别的 🔆翻译、pdf见公众号【琐简英语】,回复"1"可进【打卡交流群】

4分钟
1k+
9个月前
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