051 | 加拿大大选：特朗普如何帮助自由党逆风翻盘 How Trump Tipped the Scales for Canada's Liberals Party
【聊了什么】
美国的北方邻国加拿大刚刚经历了一场联邦大选。民调一度大幅落后的自由党，在新党魁、前央行行长马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）的带领下赢得连任，但仅获少数政府；一度被高度看好的保守党及其「小特朗普」式党魁博励志（Pierre Poilievre）痛失好局，本人甚至丢掉了自己的国会议席。
这场「逆风翻盘」背后，特朗普扮演了极不寻常的角色。从挥舞关税大棒，到宣称「加拿大应成为美国第51州」，特朗普的一系列言行如何深刻影响了加拿大选民的情绪和选择？博励志试图模仿的「枫叶MAGA」路线，为何在加拿大行不通？
面对国内的住房危机、通胀压力，以及来自美国的贸易战和威胁和主权挑战，技术官僚卡尼将在「后特鲁多时代」带领加拿大走向何方？
我们请到两位加拿大的朋友昌西和Sagar，一起复盘这场邻国大选。
播客文字稿 https://theamericanroulette.com/canada-election-trump-carney-transcript/
更正：
1. 卡尼拥有哈佛大学的经济学学士学位（1988年毕业）以及牛津大学的经济学硕士（1993年）和经济学博士学位（1995年），并非哈佛大学的经济学博士。
2. 卡尼于2013年7月1日出任英格兰银行行长，当时他并非英国公民。他是自1694年英格兰银行成立以来第一位担任此职的非英国人。
本期节目录制于5月1日。
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合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]
【时间轴】
01:34 大选结果：自由党逆风翻盘与特朗普的关键影响
05:05 特鲁多十年回顾：从高光时刻到少数政府困境
29:10 保守党与博励志：「枫叶MAGA」为何在加拿大行不通？
35:36 大选背景：通胀、移民与民粹主义暗流
37:50 代际鸿沟：年轻人右倾与选民议题差异
42:23 博励志个人政治前途未卜
49:24 新民主党惨败：策略投票与政党困境
55:53 保守党未来：内部分裂风险与派系矛盾
59:29 华人等少数族裔选票与选区分析
01:04:50 新总理卡尼：技术官僚的登场与挑战
01:13:52 特朗普时代的美加关系
01:23:41 美加关系的「新常态」与加拿大多边主义外交的未来
【我们是谁】
美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。
我们的主播和嘉宾：
小华：媒体人
王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子
昌西：曾担任自由党国会党团幕僚
Sagar：全球市场交易员
【 What We Talked About】
Up North, Canada just experienced a dramatic federal election. The Liberal Party, led by new leader and former central bank governor Mark Carney, achieved a stunning comeback despite trailing badly in the polls, securing a minority government. Conversely, the Conservatives, once poised for victory under their Trump-like leader Pierre Poilievre, suffered a major setback, with Poilievre himself losing his seat in Parliament.
What role did US President Trump play in this surprising turnaround? His tariff threats and extraordinary claim that Canada to become the 51st U.S. state reverberated across the border. How did this influence Canadian voters? And why did Poilievre's attempt at a "Maple MAGA" strategy fall flat?
In the post-Trudeau era, how will the technocratic Mark Carney navigate Canada through its housing crisis, inflation, and the unprecedented pressure – covering trade, threats, and sovereignty – from its southern neighbour?
We're joined by two friends with insights from Canada, Chauncey and Sagar, to dissect this pivotal election next door.
This episode was recorded on May 1st, 2025.
【Support Us】
If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:
Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/
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Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]
【Timeline】
01:34 Election Results: Liberal Comeback & Trump's Key Influence
05:05 Trudeau's Decade: From Highlights to Minority Government Struggles
29:10 Conservatives & Poilievre: Why "Maple MAGA" Failed in Canada?
35:36 Election Context: Inflation, Immigration & Populist Undercurrents
37:50 Generational Divide: Youth Rightward Shift & Voter Issue Priorities
42:23 Poilievre's Uncertain Political Future
49:24 NDP's Crushing Defeat: Strategic Voting & Party Struggles
55:53 Conservative Future: Risk of Internal Splits & Factionalism
59:29 Analysis: Chinese & Other Minority Votes in Key Ridings
01:04:50 New PM Carney: The Technocrat's Arrival & Challenges
01:13:52 US-Canada Relations in the Trump Era
01:23:41 The "New Normal" for US-Canada Ties & Canada's Multilateral Future
【Who We Are】
The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.
Our Hosts and Guests:
小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer
王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information
Chauncey: Former staffer for the Liberal Party's parliamentary caucus
Sagar: Global Markets Trader
【The Links】
https://theinitium.com/zh-hans/opinion/20250113-canada-trudeau-resign
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