The Barnum effect: Why horoscopes feel so personal?
Have you ever felt like your horoscope was written just for you? Or a fortune cookie's advice seemed incredibly relevant? You may be surprised, but it's actually not such a coincidence after all.
This psychological phenomenon is known as the Barnum effect. It's a cognitive bias that occurs when people believe that generic personality descriptions and statements apply specifically to them. It may explain how practices such as astrology, fortune telling and personality tests have become relatively accepted despite lacking any basis in fact.
Of course, people offering such services may not be aware of the Barnum effect label, but many understand how it works and seek to exploit it for their gain.
Where does the name come from?
P.T. Barnum was an American entertainer and entrepreneur who founded the Barnum Circus in 1871. According to explorepsychology.com, Barnum used the formula, always have a little something for everybody, to explain his success.
But it was only in 1956 that the term Barnum Effect was coined, with psychologist Paul Meehl putting it forward in an essay to express his frustration at patients being told statements that could apply to anyone.
In academic fields, the Barnum effect is more often referred to as the Forer effect, or subjective validation. In 1948, Bertrand Forer asked his psychology students to complete a personality test. A week later, he handed out their personalized assessments. In reality though, there was nothing personalised about them.
Regardless of what they had answered, all students received the exact same 13 statements on their personality vignette. These included, you have a great need for other people to like and admire you, and, while you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them.
So the professor was slacking rather than the students on that occasion, then?
Well, actually, Forer proceeded to ask each student to rate how well their assessment could apply to their personality. On a scale from 0 to 5, the result was an average of 4.3, meaning for the most part the students saw their vague assessments as accurate.
Only afterwards did he reveal the real reason behind the test. He would go on to publish his findings in the Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology under the title, The Fallacy of Personal Validation, A Classroom Demonstration of Gullibility. Forer's test was in the interest of academia, but unfortunately some people do use the Barnum effect to trick others.
Like who, for example?
Well, aside from the fortune tellers and astrology gurus we alluded to earlier, you've also got brands and their marketing teams who are constantly looking for ways to get their customers spending more. They want consumers to feel like they are being spoken to directly, thus creating a false sense of exclusivity.
When customers are made to believe they have been selected to receive special deals or ads, they may feel that the brand resonates with them personally. This kind of supposedly personalized content may take the form of emails, recommendations, and invitations to register an account.
It's definitely important to be aware that the Barnum effect exists, and that it distorts the way we perceive information. There you have it.
词汇表
horoscope [ˈhɒrəskəʊp] n. 星座运势，占星术
fortune cookie [ˈfɔːtʃuːn ˈkʊki] 幸运饼干，签饼（内含预测运气小纸条的中餐馆饼干）
Barnum effect [ˈbɑːnəm ɪˈfekt] 巴纳姆效应（认为普遍适用的描述与自己特别贴切的心理现象）
cognitive bias [ˈkɒɡnətɪv ˈbaɪəs] 认知偏差
generic [dʒəˈnerɪk] adj. 通用的，泛泛的，普遍的
astrology [əˈstrɒlədʒi] n. 占星术，占星学
fortune telling [ˈfɔːtʃuːn ˈtelɪŋ] 算命，占卜
exploit [ɪkˈsplɔɪt] vt. 利用，开发，剥削
formula [ˈfɔːmjələ] n. 法则，公式，配方
coin [kɔɪn] vt. 创造，提出（新词）
Forer effect / subjective validation [ˈfɔːrə][ˌvælɪˈdeɪʃn] 福勒效应，主观验证（巴纳姆效应的学术名称）
vignette [vɪnˈjet] n. 简介，简述，简评
slack [slæk] vi. 偷懒，懈怠
proceed to [prəˈsiːd] 继续做，着手进行
vague [veɪɡ] adj. 模糊的，含糊的，不明确的
fallacy [ˈfæləsi] n. 谬误，谬论，错误见解
gullibility [ˌɡʌləˈbɪləti] n. 轻信，易受骗
academia [ˌækəˈdiːmiə] n. 学术界，学术工作
fortune teller [ˈfɔːtʃuːn ˈtelə(r)] 算命先生，占卜师
guru [ˈɡʊruː] n. 大师，专家，权威
allude to [əˈluːd] 暗指，提及，间接提到
exclusivity [ˌekskluːˈsɪvəti] n. 独有性，排他性，专属感
resonate with [ˈrezəneɪt] 与…产生共鸣，契合
supposedly [səˈpəʊzɪdli] adv. 据说，据称，所谓地
distort [dɪˈstɔːt] vt. 扭曲，歪曲，使变形
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